4A Projections Week 5

[DeCav]

Well, Dutch Fork has ripped a lot of hearts out since Knotts arrived!

[racincowboy02]

Its called a projection geez people we do that kind of stuff here and it usually starts this early sometimes earlier and he was playing around with the doodle to see what it would look like damn

Decav I can assure you if we don't make the playoffs then the coaches will be ran out of town with a huge angry mob behind them

[DeCav]

Yep. I'm a Gaffney fan the rest of the year for sure!

[wildcatnation]

DeCav, this is actually near your worst case scenario, if you win out.
Because this projection has Gaffney and Mauldin with losing records.

If Mauldin and Gaffney get to six wins it could help you.
Boiling Springs can only help if Dutch Fork isn't involved in the situation.
(Dutch Fork played BS and of course they ripped your heart out.... )

Dorman could be anywhere from 1 to 5 seed while winning out.

(just depends on what everybody else does)

Not saying its going to happen but if west Florence wins out what kind of seed could they get in the playoffs?

[Sibilance]

How does it affect the algorthm that 6 or so regions haven't yet played a region game? I"m a newby to these projection thingies

[SF Band dad]

Not saying its going to happen but if west Florence wins out what kind of seed could they get in the playoffs?

I think they would be the lowest seeded region champion in Div II. Below the other region champs, above all others. I'm guessing 4 to 6 seed.

[racincowboy02]

It doesn't really affect it at all the whole thing is based on how many points the teams have after they have played all 11 games which means they have to predict the remainder of the games and plug it in

[SF Band dad]

How does it affect the algorthm that 6 or so regions haven't yet played a region game? I"m a newby to these projection thingies

The projections are a big game of "What if....?". In this case, what will the brackets look like if the favored team wins every game? EHS-MG used Doodle's rankings to determine the favored team in each match-up through week 10. The bracket he posted is the result.

The lack of region games probably influences the accuracy of Doodle's rankings, particularly on schools that haven't had many 4A opponents.

Once you have the spreadsheet built you can play with the scenarios and watch the results. The biggest effect is when a big school fails to make the playoffs, which moves a smaller school up to Div I.

In previous years RF-74 and EHS-MG have both published projections where they don't just use the rankings, they actually pick each remaining game. Bear in mind, they also have to project out-of-state and 3A opponents to calculate each teams points. It's a mess.

[swampfox1]

Here is a new twist. With all the weather and games being postponed to Monday and now school districts are closing school on Monday does that mean schools will play two varsity games in one week starting on Tuesday then turn around and play on Friday or do they move the games to the end of the year, Cancel the games and not play? I know the pee dee and lowcountry right now are hit pretty hard and from the news so is the midland area.

[wildcatnation]

Here is a new twist. With all the weather and games being postponed to Monday and now school districts are closing school on Monday does that mean schools will play two varsity games in one week starting on Tuesday then turn around and play on Friday or do they move the games to the end of the year, Cancel the games and not play? I know the pee dee and lowcountry right now are hit pretty hard and from the news so is the midland area.

That's why every school should have played Thursday night and they wouldn't have to go throw this