4A Projections after Week 9 - Updated 10/26/15

[Chief Whoa]

4A Projections Week 9 - Updated: October 26,2015


Some Projected Region Records...
Region 1................Region 2.........................Region 3............................Region 4
Westside 7-0...........Spartanburg 6-1................Northwestern 6-0..................Westwood 5-0
Hillcrest 5-2............Byrnes 6-1.......................York 4-2............................Dutch Fork 3-2
Laurens 5-2.............Dorman 5-2.....................Nation Ford 4-2....................Blythewood 3-2
TL Hanna 5-2...........Boiling Springs 5-2.............Gaffney 4-2........................Ridge View 3-2

Region 5................Region 6.........................Region 7............................Region 8
Lexington 5-0..........Sumter 5-0......................Goose Creek 5-0...................Fort D 4-0
River Bluff 4-1.........Conway 4-1......................Cane Bay 4-1.......................Ashley Ridge 3-1
Irmo 3-2................South Florence 3-2..............Stratford 2-3.......................Bluffton 2-2
The Rest 1-4...........Carolina Forest 2-3..............West Ashley 2-3...................Summerville 1-3

This is about 75% complete.
I am currently studying all the Big 16, Out-of-State, 3A, and 2A opponents to see who might get to 6 wins....
I will see how that could affect the brackets and how it may affect the At-large berths.
So there may be an update.
I'll give more details later.

If Dorman beats Byrnes this week do they just switch places?

[FootballFan4343]

4A Projections Week 9 - Updated: October 26,2015


Some Projected Region Records...
Region 1................Region 2.........................Region 3............................Region 4
Westside 7-0...........Spartanburg 6-1................Northwestern 6-0..................Westwood 5-0
Hillcrest 5-2............Byrnes 6-1.......................York 4-2............................Dutch Fork 3-2
Laurens 5-2.............Dorman 5-2.....................Nation Ford 4-2....................Blythewood 3-2
TL Hanna 5-2...........Boiling Springs 5-2.............Gaffney 4-2........................Ridge View 3-2

Region 5................Region 6.........................Region 7............................Region 8
Lexington 5-0..........Sumter 5-0......................Goose Creek 5-0...................Fort D 4-0
River Bluff 4-1.........Conway 4-1......................Cane Bay 4-1.......................Ashley Ridge 3-1
Irmo 3-2................South Florence 3-2..............Stratford 2-3.......................Bluffton 2-2
The Rest 1-4...........Carolina Forest 2-3..............West Ashley 2-3...................Summerville 1-3

This is about 75% complete.
I am currently studying all the Big 16, Out-of-State, 3A, and 2A opponents to see who might get to 6 wins....
I will see how that could affect the brackets and how it may affect the At-large berths.
So there may be an update.
I'll give more details later.

If Dorman beats Byrnes this week do they just switch places?

Yes and No, Dorman would most likely get to #5 (which would be the highest 2nd place team out of a region), while Byrnes would drop to at least 10 (since they finished 3rd or 4th in region). So all 1st and 2nd place teams would be seeded prior to Byrnes, which would push them back to at least 10, possibly 11th. But, I don't think they would fall past that as they would have the most points of the 3rd-4th place teams as well as the at large teams. So, back to your question. Dorman moves up to 5, possibly 6, and Byrnes would drop to #10 or 11.

[EHSMeanGreen]

The Race for the #1 seed in D1

Northwestern
-must win Region 3 (36 pts)
-need Gaffney to beat Fort Mill so that Gaffney gets to 6 wins (36.5) (I have Gaffney finishing 6-5)
-need Woodside(VA) to win 6 games (37 pts)
........................Woodside(VA) is currently 5-3 (I have Woodside getting to 6 wins)
final two games are against Heritage (3-5) and Kecoughtan (3-5)

Fort Dorchester
-must win out and win Region 8 (36.5)
-need Carolina Forest to get to 6 wins
.........................CF is currently 4-5 (I have Carolina Forest finishing 5-6)
final two games are against West Florence and Conway.

Dutch Fork (In this projection, I have DF at 35.5 pts after losing to Westwood)
-must win out and win Region 4 (36 pts)
-need Boiling Springs (4-5) to win 6 games. (36.5) (I have Boiling Springs finishing 6-5)
-need Spring Valley (4-4) to get to 6 wins. (37) (I have Spring Valley finishing 4-7)

Dutch Fork still has a couple ways they can get to #1 seed. (Even with 3 losses, because of the Big 16 teams they played)
-They need Boiling Springs to go (2-0) and Spring Valley to go at least (2-1).
-There is even a scenario where the Blythewood @ Spring Valley game in Week 12 could determine the #1 seed for D1.

Ashley Ridge
-must win out and win Region 4 (36.5 pts)
-I think they would fall short on Opponent Wins, but they could end up #2 or #3

Anyway, the point I am trying to make. There is a lot of Football left to determine the top 3 spots.......
Right now I give Northwestern a slight advantage.

[swampfox1]

From a different point of view... Just picked a few games differently than MeanGreen...

I decided to go with the grain in some cases, and in some cases, I went against the grain. I picked Dorman to win Friday at Duncan {not that I think that will really happen} but we wanted to see some different things. Summerville over Bluffton, Westwood over Dutch Fork... yeah, I went there...

Westside 7 0
Hillcrest 5 2
Laurens 5 2
TL Hanna 5 2
Easley 3 4
Greenwood 2 5
Woodmont 1 6
Greenville 0 7

Spartanburg 6 1
Dorman 6 1
Byrnes 5 2
Boiling Springs 5 2
Mauldin 3 4
JL Mann 2 5
Wade Hampton 1 6
Riverside 0 7

Northwestern 6 0
Nation Ford 4 2
Gaffney 4 2
York 4 2
Fort Mill 2 4
Rock Hill 1 5
Clover 0 6

Westwood 5 0
Ridge View 4 1
Dutch Fork 3 2
Blythewood 2 3
Spring Valley 1 4
Lugoff-Elgin 0 5

Lexington 5 0
River Bluff 4 1
Irmo 3 2
South Aiken 2 3
White Knoll 1 4
North Augusta 0 5

Sumter 5 0
Conway 4 1
South Florence 3 2
Carolina Forest 2 3
Socastee 1 4
West Florence 0 5

Goose Creek 5 0
Cane Bay 4 1
Stratford 2 3
West Ashley 2 3
Wando 2 3
James Island 0 5

Fort Dorchester 4 0
Ashley Ridge 3 1
Summerville 2 2
Bluffton 2 2
Colleton County 0 4

Giving you this bracket for Division One:
1 Northwestern
16 Summerville

8 Byrnes
9 Dutch Fork

4 Sumter
13 Gaffney

5 Dorman
12 Fort Mill


2 Fort Dorchester
15 Stratford

7 Hillcrest
10 Boiling Springs

3 Goose Creek
14 Carolina Forest

6 Ashley Ridge
11 Mauldin
==========================================================
And this bracket for Division Two:
1 Spartanburg
16 Irmo

8 Ridge View
9 River Bluff

4 Westwood
13 Bluffton

5 Conway
12 Blythewood


2 Westside
15 South Florence

7 Cane Bay
10 York

3 Lexington
14 Laurens

6 Nation Ford
11 TL Hanna

I haven't a clue on some of the out of state standings and so there is some room for uh oh here... Just something else to look at and discuss...

One problem with Bluffton being 2-2 and Summerville being 2-2...Bluffton is currently 0-2 so they would have to beat Summerville and Colleton County. That would mean that Summerville beats AR and loses to Bluffton, which would put AR, Bluffton and Summerville all 2-2 unless you have AR beating Ft. then you have AR and FT. 3-1 but you have AR 3-1 and Ft 4-0 so either bluffton goes 2-2 with a win over CC and Summerville or Summerville goes 2-2 with Wins over CC and Bluffton or as I said Summerville wins this week and loses in week 11

[EHSMeanGreen]

If Dorman beats Byrnes this week do they just switch places?

Yes and No, Dorman would most likely get to #5 (which would be the highest 2nd place team out of a region), while Byrnes would drop to at least 10 (since they finished 3rd or 4th in region). So all 1st and 2nd place teams would be seeded prior to Byrnes, which would push them back to at least 10, possibly 11th. But, I don't think they would fall past that as they would have the most points of the 3rd-4th place teams as well as the at large teams. So, back to your question. Dorman moves up to 5, possibly 6, and Byrnes would drop to #10 or 11.

I just changed one result: Dorman beating Byrnes....from the initial projection that I posted.
Here is what I got.


Pretty much what FootballFan4343 posted and very similar to what Rebel-Fan-74 posted.
Bracket differences could easily be caused by minor changes in opponent wins and losses.

Basically, Dorman and Byrnes are playing for a Home Playoff game this Friday Night.

[Rebel-Fan-74]

One problem with Bluffton being 2-2 and Summerville being 2-2...Bluffton is currently 0-2 so they would have to beat Summerville and Colleton County. That would mean that Summerville beats AR and loses to Bluffton, which would put AR, Bluffton and Summerville all 2-2 unless you have AR beating Ft. then you have AR and FT. 3-1 but you have AR 3-1 and Ft 4-0 so either bluffton goes 2-2 with a win over CC and Summerville or Summerville goes 2-2 with Wins over CC and Bluffton or as I said Summerville wins this week and loses in week 11

TYPO - sorry, Bluffton should read 1-3

[EHSMeanGreen]

Just to show how volatile the brackets are....
I changed 2 results from the initial projection that I posted in this topic.
Fort Mill beats Gaffney
Dutch Fork beats Westwood
And this is the outcome.......


Fort D, Dutch Fork, and Northwestern all tied for 1st in points.
Northwestern came in 3rd due to having less opponent wins.
Fort D and DF tied in Opponent Wins, but Fort D gets them on opponent losses.

[Rebel-Fan-74]

Anyway, the point I am trying to make. There is a lot of Football left to determine the top 3 spots.......
Right now I give Northwestern a slight advantage.

AMEN! you are so true.... I'd be willing to go out on a limb and say that our projections for Week 11 games for Region II match 100% {for those who are wondering, it is basically Spartanburg County -vs- Greenville County}. The question I have for you is would you be willing to place a HUGE BET on all four games turning out the way you project them? I mean that is about as much of a slam dunk as you can get in SC High School football...... would you sign your pink slip and put your truck on the line? I know I wouldn't....

And one more point to throw out there...
#1 or #2 - you are home to Columbia, and in some of the projections, #2 looks even better than #1... in fact, I'd rather be the #2 seed in most of the projections EHSMeanGreen has posted.... no path is "easy" to Columbia, but look back and see if you would rather be #1 or #2 in the projections.

[2002Patriot]

Just to show a volatile the brackets are....
I changed 2 results from the initial projection that I posted in this topic.
Fort Mill beats Gaffney
Dutch Fork beats Westwood
And this is the outcome.......


Fort D, Dutch Fork, and Northwestern all tied for 1st in points.
Northwestern came in 3rd due to having less opponent wins.
Fort D and DF tied in Opponent Wins, but Fort D gets them on opponent losses.

That second round match up could be really dangerous but I would like our chances of getting to the final. I prefer that other bracket though...lol

[jalen72]

Let me give you one against the grain that changes your bracket again T.L Hanna to win it's remaining two games you heard it here first....Lol