Re: 3A Projections after Week 9 - Updated 10/28/15

[HHS Fan]

Here is how I have the standings after Week 10:
Region I
1 - Seneca, 2 - BHP, 3 - Wren, 4 - Daniel
Region II
1 - Greer, 2 - Chapman, 3 - Emerald, 4 - Southside
Region III
1 - South Pointe, 2 - Lancaster, 3 - Union County
Region IV
1 - Chapin, the rest is a mess. See more below

Possible Upper State At Large - Pickens, Travelers Rest, Broome and whoever comes out of IV

Region V
1 - Midland Valley, 2 - Airport, 3 - Aiken
Region VI
1 - Hartsville, 2 - Marlboro County, 3 - Darlington
Region VII
1 - Myrtle Beach, 2 - Georgetown, 3 - St. James
Region VIII
1 - Hilton Head/Hanahan winner, 2 - Hilton Head/Hanahan loser, 3 - OW

Possible Lower State At Large - Brookland-Cayce, Crestwood, North Myrtle Beach, Beaufort/Berkeley winner

Region IV
Current Region records: RNE 3-1, Flora 2-2, Dreher 2-2, Camden 1-3
If RNE Beats Dreher, RNE is the #2 seed with a 4-1 record, Dreher will be 2-3
.if Chapin beats Flora, Flora drops to 2-3
..and if Camden wins Chapin, Flora and Camden are all 2-3 in Region. Three way tie
..or if Camden loses, Flora is #3 and Dreher is #4
.if Flora beats Chapin, then Flora is #3 and Dreher is #4 (Dreher beat Camden, so Camden's results won't matter)

If Dreher beats RNE they both go to 3-2
.if Chapin beats Flora, flora goes to 2-3
..and if Camden wins, Dreher is #2, RNE #3 and Camden is #4
..or if Camden loses, Dreher is #2, RNE #3 and Flora is #4
.if Flora beats Chapin, then Flora goes to 3-2 with RNE and Dreher both at 3-2 and another three way tie.
At this point Camden's results won't matter.

[EHSMeanGreen]

3A Projections after Week 10
*Teams in RED are the At-Large Berths


There is still a lot to be determined in 3A.

more details to come...

[EHSMeanGreen]

These are the projections for the At-Large Berths.
Let me know if I married them correctly in the bracket. I think I did.

Broome and Crestwood won't have enough points according to this Projection.

I hope to post some other scenarios later.....

[GoFor3]

This is a great post with lots of good info. Most of it is correct but a few things have changed since Friday night so the picture is a little clearer now even though Region 4 still has a week remaining in the regular season. Here is what I'm led to believe will be the upstate AAA playoff projections, but somebody please correct me if this is wrong.

Region 1: 1) Seneca 2) BHP 3) Wren 4) Daniel 5) Pickens (30.8)

Region 2: 1) Greer 2) Chapman 3) Emerald 4) Southside 5) TR (31.5)...same region record as Eastside but TR won head to head.

Region 3: 1) South Pointe 2) Lancaster 3) Union County 4) Broome (29.7)
** Broome is #4 by virtue of upsetting Lancaster on Friday night so Clinton finishes 5th and is out

Region 4: 1) Chapin is a lock. But spots 2-4 are still up in the air and may end up going to the Region tiebreaker.

** If RNE wins they are 2nd. ACF and Dreher will be 3rd and 4th respectively b/c ACF defeated Dreher head-to-head.. Dreher will have 29.9 points but this can change as much as 0.1 more or less based on the remaining game to be played by Columbia. CA Johnson will be a mark-off for Dreher so those points won't matter.
** If Dreher wins AND ACF wins then there's a 3-way tie for 2nd and Camden is out. FINISH will be determined by the region tiebreaker, but in either case all 3 teams will have more points than Broome so the #4 team for Region 4 will go to the Lowerstate bracket.
** If ACF AND Dreher both lose AND Camden wins there is a 3-way tie for 3rd so the Region tiebreaker will determine 3rd and 4th. 5th place will be out. Again, in all scenarios all 3 teams have more points than Broome and #4 from Region 4 will go to the Lowerstate bracket.

BOTTOM LINE- Chapin is the Region Champ. Camden's playoff hopes hinge on a Dreher win and the Bulldogs defeating LR. Otherwise, its RNE, Dreher, and ACF as the region 4 reps in some way, shape, or form.

The points in the above situations will be as follows: ACF will have 33.7 or 32.8, Dreher 30.8 or 29.9, RNE is 33.7, and Camden is 31.9

So, it appears that Broome is the unlucky team, despite a big win on Friday night over Lancaster.

The 2 Upperstate "at-large" teams will be TR and Pickens. The 4th place team from Region 4 will be going to the Lowerstate bracket.

Since TR is in the same region as Greer and Pickens is in the same region as Seneca, the common practice in AAA has been for teams from the same region to not face off in the 1st Round if both "at-large" qualifiers are set to face a team from the same region.

If this is the case, then TR will travel to Seneca and Pickens will go to Greer. All other slots are pre-determined by region finish.

[CITYSLICKER]

GOOFY GREEN IDIOT, WHY DO YOU KEEP LEAVING, BERKELEY OUT, IF STAGS BEAT BUFART FRIDAY, WE GO TO THE MIDLAND VALLEY DONKIES NOTBUFART

[EHSMeanGreen]

GOOFY GREEN IDIOT, WHY DO YOU KEEP LEAVING, BERKELEY OUT, IF STAGS BEAT BUFART FRIDAY, WE GO TO THE MIDLAND VALLEY DONKIES NOTBUFART

Good Luck CitySlicker!

[Jed]

I did a little math this weekend, and I'm almost positive that if Dreher ends up as the 4 from Region IV, it would leave them out and Broome gets in. Could be a tiebreaker, which would hinge on a Columbia win, but even then I think Broome gets it on opponent's victories. Is that the same thing y'all are seeing?
And I realize that a ton of things have to happen for Dreher to be 4. But it's been a strange year.