4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated 10/31/15

[FootballFan4343]

Ok, just spoke with a friend of mine who is an asst coach at Northwestern. He said an email went out to all ADs in the region today from Gaffney AD, who is the head of region 3-4A this year, outlining the tiebreaking procedures. He said in the event of a 3 way tie, the first tiebreaker is head to head, the 2nd is points allowed between the three teams. He noted that this is different from what some other regions handle tiebreakers. He also noted that each region presents its top 4 qualifiers ranked 1-4 to the SCHSL. He said the SCHSL then assigns the "points" and seeds the 1s first, 2s second, and 3s, 4s, and at larges after that. Again, he may be completely wrong, but I am passing on what he said. This is what was shared with me

[EHSMeanGreen]

Ok, just spoke with a friend of mine who is an asst coach at Northwestern. He said an email went out to all ADs in the region today from Gaffney AD, who is the head of region 3-4A this year, outlining the tiebreaking procedures. He said in the event of a 3 way tie, the first tiebreaker is head to head, the 2nd is points allowed between the three teams. He noted that this is different from what some other regions handle tiebreakers. He also noted that each region presents its top 4 qualifiers ranked 1-4 to the SCHSL. He said the SCHSL then assigns the "points" and seeds the 1s first, 2s second, and 3s, 4s, and at larges after that. Again, he may be completely wrong, but I am passing on what he said. This is what was shared with me

This is just simply a misunderstanding of the difference between how Regions determine their order of Region Finish....
Which they do. For Region purposes.

And how the 4A playoff brackets are determined. The playoff brackets are completely separate from that.

[EHSMeanGreen]

http://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/s ... /18686575/
excerpt from the article.....(read more at the link)
Easley (4-7, 3-4) needed to win, needed Greenville (3-8, 3-4) to score 32 points or fewer and needed Greenwood to beat Laurens in order for the Green Wave to make the playoffs. All of the above happened to extend their season for at least one more week.

This is discussing Region One's Tie-breakers.....

Here is last years playoff bracket.
http://www.schsl.org/2014Brackets/fb4-2.pdf
No Easley.

[SF Band dad]

I've been following SCHS football for 7 years, I've got to agree with EHS and RF-74, SCHSL rules take precedence for seeding playoff brackets. I have never seen a region get to use it's own rules.

If you disagree please cite examples.

[EHSMeanGreen]

Right now, I am playing around with the projections to see what
the High Water mark and Low Water mark are for making it as the last At-Large team.

High Water Mark- Haven't finished yet (probably will be 33.5 or 33) Still working on it.
Low Water Mark- 31.5 points. (Not a likely scenario)
(I don't think that will happen but I did put in a scenario that ended up with one team at 31.5 points getting the last At-large spot.)

Most projections (that I have done) put the final At-large team at 33 or 32.5 pts.
Which means that 1 or 2 teams that end up at 32.5 pt "might" make it in or none of them will.

One particular projection had around 6 teams at 32.5 with only one having the opponent wins to get in.

[jalen72]

What do you think of this projection Carolina Forest wont make the playoffs which moves Northwestern back into Div 1 and Laurens beats Greenwood and they both make playoffs in D2 Greenwood as the at large team

[EHSMeanGreen]

What do you think of this projection Carolina Forest wont make the playoffs which moves Northwestern back into Div 1 and Laurens beats Greenwood and they both make playoffs in D2 Greenwood as the at large team

Everything that you have stated is possible. I don't know how probable.

But just to be clear...

I don't know which bracket Northwestern will end up in. D1 or D2? It is merely a guess that they will end up D2.
Northwestern could go either way.

Because we have the 2 games in week 12. It is not as narrowed down at this point as it normally is.

Right now, Goose Creek at 18th in enrollment is the only one that I would guarantee is in the D1 bracket.

19th in enrollment and above is still to be decided. D1 or D2?

I am currently working on a post that I hope will explain this in more detail.

Northwestern is 21st in enrollment.
So, if 16 or more out of the top 20 in enrollment make the playoffs, Northwestern goes D2.

I haven't accomplished it on my spreadsheet yet, but it "MIGHT" be mathematically possible for Spartanburg to be the last team in D1. I don't think it is probable but it "MIGHT" be possible. So far everytime I have tried they are still the 1st team in D2.

[jalen72]

After week 11 ends this is how i see the playoff brackets:

1 Northwestern
16 Blythewood
2 Fort Dorchester
15 West Ashley
3 Dutch Fork
14 Mauldin
4 Sumter
13 Boiling Springs
5 Goose Creek
12 Hillcrest
6 Byrnes
11 Dorman
7 Gaffney
10 Fort Mill
8 White Knoll
9 Ashley Ridge

1 Spartanburg
16 River Bluff
2 Lexington
15 Colleton County
3 TL Hanna
14 South Florence
4 Westside
13 North Augusta
5 Conway
12 Laurens
6 Cane Bay
11 Ridge View
7 Westwood
10 Greenwood
8 York
9 Nation Ford

Any thoughts about that potential bracket?

[swampfox1]

You see Ashley Ridge playing on the road in the first round. I figured they would have one first round home game. You have white knoll with 34.5 minimum points and Ashley Ridge with 35.5 minimum points. Wouldn't that game be flipped AR 8 seed White knoll 9?

[Rebel-Fan-74]

After week 11 ends this is how i see the playoff brackets:

1 Northwestern
16 Blythewood
2 Fort Dorchester
15 West Ashley
3 Dutch Fork
14 Mauldin
4 Sumter
13 Boiling Springs
5 Goose Creek
12 Hillcrest
6 Byrnes
11 Dorman
7 Gaffney
10 Fort Mill
8 White Knoll
9 Ashley Ridge

Any thoughts about that potential bracket?

It took a lot of shuffling and a lot of "upsets", but I got those 16 teams in Division One Bracket. I couldn't make the seeds match in all cases.... for example: I cannot seem to get Blythewood to the #16 seed and there are others that I think your seeding cannot happen with only one week left for most teams. I am not sure how you got Ashley Ridge all the way down to #9 seed?

All in all, if I were to bet on it right now, I'd have to say that will not be the 16 teams in the Division One bracket when it is released a week from Saturday.... not that I'd put money on any bracket in this thread! Too many things can alter the brackets. Carolina Forrest for example may come down to Darlington winning Friday night or week one of the AAA Playoffs. At 5-4 now, they need one more win to give CF an extra point.

Division Two was about the same thing... I think I could manage to get all 16 teams in the bracket, but seeding seemed to be an issue.