Enrollment Numbers 5 years from now. (LONG)

[Dave Pickren]

I guess there is a thread on "another site"about enrollment at schools in Spartanburg County.

For years I have included enrollment numbers and projected these number for future years. I guess my classwork recently in Derivitive Mathematics has an actual application. Anyway..........

The question I received via email was where the 4A schools in Spartanburg will be in the future with regards to enrollment.

Byrnes
Past 10 year growth pct UP 33.2%
Past 5 year growth pct UP 7.53%

The growth in D5 has slowed down slightly over the past few years but the area continues to grow. Growth in Grade 1 to 8 was between 4 to 7 percent over the past 3 years. Byrnes is starting the construction of a new high school in the next 2 years which always adds to enrollment in the future. Comparing the numbers and looking at the future
2018 - 2417 students


Dorman
Past 10 year growth pct UP 457 students
Past 5 year growth pct UP 52 students
Dorman has remained steady over the past few years. The school opens a new expansion next year that adds new classrooms and a fine arts center. Grade 1 to 8 saw around 5.5 % increase over the past few years.
2018 - 3300 students


Boiling Springs
Past 10 year growth pct UP 26.33 %
Past 5 year growth pct UP 11.44%

Boiling Spring continues to be one of the fastest growing schools in the state. On average the school has grown almost 2.3% per year for almost 15 years which is a incredible growth pattern. Looking at Grades 1 to 8 the there seems to be no stop to the growth. You could easily make a case that Boiling Springs could pass 2600 students by 2018
More conservative is probably 2525 to 2550


Spartanburg
Past 10 year growth pct DOWN 565 STUDENTS
Past 5 year growth pct DOWN 347 STUDENTS

Spartanburg has been losing students almost every year for the past 25 years. It is not going to change anytime soon. Housing starts are almost non existent in the D7, the core high school building facility of D7 is still 50 years old despite renovations.

The surrounding neighborhoods are elderly. 39.7% of the people living in D7 are over 45 years ago, the age where their kids finish entering the school system. By contract D5 has only 25.2 percent over 45. Simply put D7 is more mature and an older area. That is no secret to anyone.

Looking at the feeder schools, D7 closed 2 elementary schools over the past 5 years. They have not been replaced or new schools opened.

But this is strictly a study of numbers. D7 is shrinking every year and by substantial numbers. Looking at the enrollment number for Grades 1 to 8 there is only slight changes in a few grades. For the most part the enrollment numbers are slightly down over the past 3 year. Over the past 10 years the District 7 Overall Enrollment has gone down 6.8 percent.

Like other school districts Spartanburg high school sees declining enrollment from 8th grade to 12 grade due to drop outs and non promotions and non graduates. in Spartanburg County there are 3622 students classified as 9th graders and 2977 students classified as Seniors. This is the standard case across the state. On average a school loses 25% of its enrollment from 9th to 12th grade.

So looking at the numbers, the trends, growth, housing and the sheer numbers.........I see Spartanburg High School around 1550 students in 5 years.

What makes this interesting is the break from 4A to 3A will probably be around 1500 in 2018. I don't think the Viking will be 3A in 2016 but it is simply a matter of time. Spartanburg in the next 8 years or so will be a 3A school without a doubt and the numbers clearly support this.

[SF Band dad]

Nice work Dave.

In the areas you looked at, do you think some of that growth or decline is because of the school district?

I know that the growth and home prices in north-western Florence county have been influenced by the disparity between the schools in FSD4 (Timmonsville) and the adjacent FSD1 (West & South Florence).

[trojangrad78]

Thanks, Dave!!!