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SCPrepTalk SCHSL 5A-D2 Football Playoff Projection after Week 7
Posted: Tue Oct 15, 2024 9:30 pm
by SCPrepTalk
SCPrepTalk SCHSL 5A-D2 Football Playoff Projection after Week 7
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*These Brackets are based on outcomes using online power ratings.
Corrections? Post or Email: admin@scpreptalk.com
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Re: SCPrepTalk SCHSL 5A-D2 Football Playoff Projection after Week 7
Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2024 10:08 am
by NHSTrojan
Interesting projections. Obviously, projections are just that. However, I’m surmised to see Gaffney ! And Northwestern 2. Everything I have head or read suggested the other way around. We will see what it is in a couple weeks.
Re: SCPrepTalk SCHSL 5A-D2 Football Playoff Projection after Week 7
Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2024 10:49 am
by WRHIRadio
So much of this is a product of what Gaffney and Northwestern's opponents will do.
The region teams will beat each other, so they will cancel each other out (each win equals a loss in the opponents W-L)
It all comes down to Mann, Greenville, and Freedom for Gaffney.............
vs. Hough, South Florence, South Pointe, and Ridgeview for Northwestern.
I don't think Hough, South Florence, or South Pointe will lose again. Ridgeview likely goes 1-2 or 2-1 the rest of the way. So, Northwestern's opponents will go 9-2 or 10-1 the rest of the way. Mann and Greenville play each other, so there's at least one loss on Gaffney's side. So, Freedom, Mann and Greenville would have to go undefeated the rest of the way to match Northwestern's out of region opponents (considering Freedom is 0-1 in region, that is a tough job for them)
I just don't see how Gaffney can catch and eventually pass Northwestern (assuming both Northwestern and Gaffney win their remaining regular season games).
Re: SCPrepTalk SCHSL 5A-D2 Football Playoff Projection after Week 7
Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2024 11:08 am
by Rebel-Fan-74
NHSTrojan wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 10:08 am
Interesting projections. Obviously, projections are just that. However, I’m surmised to see Gaffney ! And Northwestern 2. Everything I have head or read suggested the other way around. We will see what it is in a couple weeks.
WRHIRadio wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 10:49 am
So much of this is a product of what Gaffney and Northwestern's opponents will do.
This is purely a result of using the MAXPREP RPI where opponents wins and losses and (WRHIRadio don't forget this part) opponents opponents wins and losses are a part of the calculation as well as your own wins and losses. You want all of them to go undefeated except when they play you (which WRHI pointed out, Region mates can't because they all play each other).
Re: SCPrepTalk SCHSL 5A-D2 Football Playoff Projection after Week 7
Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2024 1:40 pm
by WRHIRadio
RebelFan,
You are correct, that part is not forgotten by me. The original post is a "projection" based on how the original poster believes it will play out. CURRENTLY, Northwestern has the highest RPI.
https://states.maxpreps.com/widgets/schsl/rpi/
My post was merely that I am not sure how the OP sees things changing moving forward. Gaffney would have to go undefeated and get a lot of help (meaning Northwestern's non region opponents would have to lose) and based on who they played, that seems unlikely (outside of a loss or two by Ridgeview). But, Gaffney's non-region opponents have at least one guaranteed loss and likely multiple others with Freedom struggling.
Re: SCPrepTalk SCHSL 5A-D2 Football Playoff Projection after Week 7
Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2024 2:27 am
by EHSMeanGreen
WRHIRadio wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2024 10:49 am
So much of this is a product of what Gaffney and Northwestern's opponents will do.
The region teams will beat each other, so they will cancel each other out (each win equals a loss in the opponents W-L)
It all comes down to Mann, Greenville, and Freedom for Gaffney.............
vs. Hough, South Florence, South Pointe, and Ridgeview for Northwestern.
I don't think Hough, South Florence, or South Pointe will lose again. Ridgeview likely goes 1-2 or 2-1 the rest of the way. So, Northwestern's opponents will go 9-2 or 10-1 the rest of the way. Mann and Greenville play each other, so there's at least one loss on Gaffney's side. So, Freedom, Mann and Greenville would have to go undefeated the rest of the way to match Northwestern's out of region opponents (considering Freedom is 0-1 in region, that is a tough job for them)
I just don't see how Gaffney can catch and eventually pass Northwestern (assuming both Northwestern and Gaffney win their remaining regular season games).
Thank you for fact checking.
You are correct.
Based on the data as of 10/15, Northwestern should have been listed as #1 in the projection.
Error: Gaffney vs Eastside game was still hidden in the spreadsheet.
This caused Gaffney to accumulate 10 results and be divided by 9, thus causing the error.
I'll get it fixed.
Thanks again.
Keep in mind, Northwestern came out just barely ahead in this model.
Corrected Bracket based on the 10/15 data will be in the next post......
Re: SCPrepTalk SCHSL 5A-D2 Football Playoff Projection after Week 7
Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2024 2:29 am
by EHSMeanGreen
Corrected bracket based on 10/15 data.....(does not include Thursday results)
Changes made:
fixed Gaffney vs. Eastside cancellation
fixed Byrnes over Dorman via head-to-head
Had Stratford come out on top of the a 3-way tie over Goose Creek and Berkeley.
4A-7
1. Stratford
2. Goose Creek
3. Berkeley
SCPrepTalk SCHSL 5A-D2 Football Playoff Projection after Week 7
Image LINK for Phones:
http://www.scpreptalk.com/aaaimages/202 ... racket.jpg
*These Brackets are based on outcomes using online power ratings.
Corrections? Post or Email: admin@scpreptalk.com
Thanks for visiting SCPrepTalk.
Re: SCPrepTalk SCHSL 5A-D2 Football Playoff Projection after Week 7
Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2024 8:13 am
by NHSTrojan
Mean Green,
I appreciate you taking the time to track this week to week. The new system of establishing seeds seems reasonably fair especially when compared to preselecting home teams in an empty bracket. I don’t really love the preplanned bye week. Especially when that will become 2 weeks for us. Essentially, I’d like home field through upper state even though we last won upper state on the road.
It will be interesting to see how this unfolds now that the picture is starting to clear up. I do understand the projections change week to week and that the numbers are very close currently. Seeing Mann drop their gave v Hanna last night will impact this with what I consider an upset.
Re: SCPrepTalk SCHSL 5A-D2 Football Playoff Projection after Week 7
Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2024 8:48 am
by Rebel-Fan-74
NHSTrojan wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 8:13 am
Seeing Mann drop their gave v Hanna last night will impact this with what I consider an upset.
That's an understatement! Region One is now wide open again. Greenwood is in the driver's seat for now and you have five teams that are still in it without a doubt and even potentials for some serious tie breakers in this Region!