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I NEED HELP DOING MY FIRST REAL PLAYOFF PROJECTION
Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:52 pm
by Rebel-Fan-74
As I mentioned in another thread, I was just throwing something together to show what the brackets MIGHT look like... I usually like to wait to start doing the PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS until we have some game results to go by, maybe week two or three is behind us.... I like to have some understanding of what the teams might have and who looks like they are legit contenders. I've always stated that the bracket projection was just my guess based on information at the time I posted the brackets.
But I'm asking you to help get this first one going. Tell me what your region should look like after week 11, who's the team to look out for, or what team will be the HILLCREST this season, going deep into the playoffs with a seeding that no one would have guessed. Do it here, or send it to me in a message, I don't care, just send me the information. Tell me (DON'T USE MY NAME) and I will never reveal my source, or just get on here and let everyone know "THIS IS HOW REGION _________ WILL LOOK ON NOVEMBER 8TH"
I'm going to post my humble guestimation before Week Zero on who will be the Region Champs for all Eight Regions, and if I'm wrong, it won't be the first time { I've been married 33 years, being wrong is not a concern any more! }
If anyone wants to disagree with our picks, let them tell us where and why we are wrong...
Re: I NEED HELP DOING MY FIRST REAL PLAYOFF PROJECTION
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2014 7:54 am
by SF Band dad
I'll take a stab at region 6 this weekend.
New arrival Socastee is a bit of a wildcard having lost their coach and QB. I'm thinking that they will be battling Conway and Carolina Forest for Horry county bragging rights and 4th place in the region. I need to wander over to the Beach media sites and see what people are saying.
Retaining a lot of talent from last year South Florence should be favored to repeat as region champs. Sumter has a new coach and a lot of holes to fill while West Florence is a stable, well run program with several key starters returning. At this point I'm thinking that Sumter's larger pool of athletes tips the scales and they will repeat as the runner up.
Re: I NEED HELP DOING MY FIRST REAL PLAYOFF PROJECTION
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2014 8:25 pm
by wave 80
Region 7
1. Goose Creek
2. Stratford
3. Wando
Region 8
1 . Summerville
2. Ashley Ridge
3. Fort Dorchester / Bluffton
that's my thoughts.
Re: I NEED HELP DOING MY FIRST REAL PLAYOFF PROJECTION
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2014 9:57 pm
by Go Tigers
IMO....Region 6
1. Sumter
2. South Florence
3. West Florence
4. Conway
5. Socastee
6. Carolina Forest
Re: I NEED HELP DOING MY FIRST REAL PLAYOFF PROJECTION
Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:32 pm
by Rebel-Fan-74
My take on Region II is broken down into three groups:
Favorites...............Questions..........................Oh Well....
Byrnes..................Spartanburg.......................Riverside
Dorman.................Mauldin............................J L Mann
Boiling Springs..........Wade Hampton
The Favorites are there because they have a lot of returning players in key positions and they are expected to do good things this season. They are not in any order, just as they came to my mind. I really think it is not a stretch to think that those three could be 6-1 in the Region and 1-1 against each other. To me, Boiling Springs is only lacking a "proven defense" or they could be considered the favorite and Byrnes and Dorman would move to the Questions column.
The Questions that most of us have for the Vikings center around three things: The O Line, How Well the WR crew steps up, and will the D be improved. I honestly think if the O Line plays well, the Vikings are in the Favorites column. Mauldin's question is simple, the QB from last year is gone, was he all they have? For WH, well, at times last year, they looked like they were making some strides forward, the question then would be: Do they continue moving forward or remain stagnant?
Oh Well I think that most folks agree that Greenville County doesn't seem to care near as much about football as their neighbors and it shows. Riverside does have a new coach, maybe we will see some new inspiration from the Warriors.
I think this season could be one where the Region automatic bid could go to tiebreakers.
Re: I NEED HELP DOING MY FIRST REAL PLAYOFF PROJECTION
Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:45 am
by movethesticks
Region 1
1. Greenwood
2. Hillcrest
3. Woodmont
Region 2
1. Byrnes
2. Boiling Springs
3. Spartanburg
Region 3
1. Northwestern
2. York
3. Gaffney
Region 4
1. Dutch Fork
2. Spring Valley
3. Blythewood
Region 5
1. North Augusta
2. White Knoll
3. Lexington
Region 6
1. South Florence
2. Sumter
3. Socastee
Region 7
1. Goose Creek
2. Wando
3. Stratford
Region 8
1. Summerville
2. Fort Dorchester
3. Colleton County
Re: I NEED HELP DOING MY FIRST REAL PLAYOFF PROJECTION
Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:22 am
by racincowboy02
movethesticks wrote:Region 1
1. Greenwood
2. Hillcrest
3. WoodmontLaurens
Region 2
1. Byrnes
2. Boiling Springs
3. Dorman
Region 3
1. Northwestern
2. York
3. Gaffney
Region 4
1. Dutch Fork
2. Spring Valley
3. Blythewood
Region 5
1. North Augusta
2. White Knoll
3. Lexington
Region 6
1. South Florence
2. Sumter
3. Socastee
Region 7
1. Goose Creek
2. Wando
3. Stratford
Region 8
1. Summerville
2. Fort Dorchester
3. Colleton County
Re: I NEED HELP DOING MY FIRST REAL PLAYOFF PROJECTION
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2014 7:57 am
by Rebel-Fan-74
cowboy and move, you need to add a #4 to Regions 1, 2 & 3 as they get 4 automatic bids.
As for your picks lining up with my first thoughts, I have to say, we are pretty close.
Region 1
1. Greenwood
2. Hillcrest
3. Woodmont - Laurens
Movethesticks - racincowboy
Those are my four teams, just not sure which one is #1 and #2, and I think I will have Woodmont #3 and Laurens #4 in my first projections.
Region 2
1. Byrnes
2. Boiling Springs
3. Dorman
Those are three of my four teams, and again, just not sure which order to put them in, Spartanburg is the other one on my list of four.
Region 3
1. Northwestern
2. York
3. Gaffney
Those are three of my four teams, this time, #1 is solid while #2 is pretty solid and #3 and #4 are not as easy. I’m leaning to Gaffney at #3 and Rock Hill at #4.
Region 4
1. Dutch Fork
2. Spring Valley
3. Blythewood
I don’t think many will argue with #1 or #2 in this Region, but #3 is almost a default selection based on what is left.
Region 5
1. North Augusta
2. White Knoll
3. Lexington
Another one where I don’t think many will argue with #1 and I’m throwing Irmo in at #2 right now with the #3 going to the winner of Lexington and White Knoll, and in my last projection, I went with Lexington. Yeah, I said “last projection”! I’ve done it three or four times already but it changes every time I do it. I haven’t published it because I can’t make up my mind on a few, and I want to see the numbers for the out of state schools as well since there are so many this year. I have done some searching and found out some numbers, but you don’t know where the SCHSL is going to get the “official” numbers from…..
Region 6
1. South Florence
2. Sumter
3. Socastee
South Florence at #1, then throw the names in a hat a pick #2 and #3 is all I’ve come up with so far.
Region 7
1. Goose Creek
2. Wando
3. Stratford
I don’t think many will argue with #1 but WOW, Wando at #2 in this Region over #3 Stratford is not something I expected to see. I would be interested to see some more of your thoughts on this one.
Region 8
1. Summerville
2. Fort Dorchester
3. Colleton County
Many times, I’ve picked Fort Dorchester to finally beat Summerville and win Region 8, but not this year {which should make the Fort D fans happy!} I agree with all three of these picks, but I will add, if Colleton County makes it to #2, don’t be too surprised.
Re: I NEED HELP DOING MY FIRST REAL PLAYOFF PROJECTION
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:04 am
by Rebel-Fan-74
To give you an idea of what it takes to do a PROJECTION:
You have to pick winners of approximately 375-400 games involving the 52 AAAA teams {52 x 11 = 572 but keep in mind, many games are against other AAAA teams so picking one game takes care of both teams. But you still have many teams playing Out Of State games and AAA, and a couple of AA and even one A team.
So you have to project the records for about 46 AAA, AA and A schools to get the opponent win totals and determine how many points the games will be worth.
Then you have to project the records for about 16 Out Of State teams for the same reason.
Now you see why the magic Excel Spreadsheet is so valuable!
Re: I NEED HELP DOING MY FIRST REAL PLAYOFF PROJECTION
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2014 9:56 am
by racincowboy02
Rebel-Fan-74 wrote:cowboy and move, you need to add a #4 to Regions 1, 2 & 3 as they get 4 automatic bids.
As for your picks lining up with my first thoughts, I have to say, we are pretty close.
Region 1
1. Greenwood
2. Hillcrest
3. Woodmont - Laurens
Movethesticks - racincowboy
Those are my four teams, just not sure which one is #1 and #2, and I think I will have Woodmont #3 and Laurens #4 in my first projections.
Region 2
1. Byrnes
2. Boiling Springs
3. Dorman
Those are three of my four teams, and again, just not sure which order to put them in, Spartanburg is the other one on my list of four.
Region 3
1. Northwestern
2. York
3. Gaffney
Those are three of my four teams, this time, #1 is solid while #2 is pretty solid and #3 and #4 are not as easy. I’m leaning to Gaffney at #3 and Rock Hill at #4.
Region 4
1. Dutch Fork
2. Spring Valley
3. Blythewood
I don’t think many will argue with #1 or #2 in this Region, but #3 is almost a default selection based on what is left.
Region 5
1. North Augusta
2. White Knoll
3. Lexington
Another one where I don’t think many will argue with #1 and I’m throwing Irmo in at #2 right now with the #3 going to the winner of Lexington and White Knoll, and in my last projection, I went with Lexington. Yeah, I said “last projection”! I’ve done it three or four times already but it changes every time I do it. I haven’t published it because I can’t make up my mind on a few, and I want to see the numbers for the out of state schools as well since there are so many this year. I have done some searching and found out some numbers, but you don’t know where the SCHSL is going to get the “official” numbers from…..
Region 6
1. South Florence
2. Sumter
3. Socastee
South Florence at #1, then throw the names in a hat a pick #2 and #3 is all I’ve come up with so far.
Region 7
1. Goose Creek
2. Wando
3. Stratford
I don’t think many will argue with #1 but WOW, Wando at #2 in this Region over #3 Stratford is not something I expected to see. I would be interested to see some more of your thoughts on this one.
Region 8
1. Summerville
2. Fort Dorchester
3. Colleton County
Many times, I’ve picked Fort Dorchester to finally beat Summerville and win Region 8, but not this year {which should make the Fort D fans happy!} I agree with all three of these picks, but I will add, if Colleton County makes it to #2, don’t be too surprised.
Thanks 74 I forgot about those regions getting 4 bids to the playoffs
Region 1
Greenwood
Hillcrest
Laurens
Woodmont
Region 2
Byrnes
Dorman
Boiling Springs
Spartanburg
Region 3
Northwestern
York
Gaffney
Rock Hill