SCPrepTalk

Warning: This is gonna be a long one...


As of the posting of this thread, we are 2 days, 1 hour, 53 minutes, 50 seconds until kickoff of the Fort Dorchester/Summerville game.


Obviously...this game is a huge deal to me. I don't care about playoffs or state championships, I don't care about region records or win/loss records...I would trade all of it for a win over Summerville. Seriously. If someone told me that Fort could go 14-1 and win the state championship but the one loss is to Summerville, OR, go 1-14 and miss the playoffs but the one win is to Summerville, I'd take the 1-14 win over Summerville in a heartbeat and celebrate like I just won the Powerball lottery. My standard of a successful season rests solely on the outcome of Friday night.


This isn't gonna be a trash talk thread, I'll save that one for tomorrow, I want this thread to be an honest discussion on the game and see what people on the board think about what the outcome will be. I'm gonna try my hardest to be unbiased with my assessment, but don't hold your breath on that.




This is one of those games where you can throw out wins/losses and statistics. There have been many times where I felt Fort should have been destroyed by Summerville but put up a great fight to make it a close game, I have also seen games where I truly felt Fort should have won easily, and Summerville kept it close and pulled it out in the end. Since 2000 there have been 16 matchups between Fort Dorchester and Summerville, and there is a lopsided 14-2 advantage for the Greenwave. That 14-2 record includes an 11 year 14 game streak where Summerville has come out on top. That's right. For anyone unaware of the Fort/Summerville history, Fort Dorchester has not won in over a decade.


To put that in some perspective, let's give some fun facts about the last time Fort Dorchester beat Summerville in 2001.

-The Ipod was first released
-George Bush had just entered his first term
-The first Harry Potter movie was released
-Friends was the top TV show
-The Miami Hurricanes were the most dominant college football team
-Britney Spears was still relevant


Quite a bit has changed since then, but one thing hasn't...Summerville's domination over Fort. That is tough to admit, but I can't argue with 14 straight wins. This year might be different though...at least that's my mantra before every other Summerville game. Oh well, enough whining about the past, let's talk about Friday.

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This looks like one of the most even matchups we have had between these two teams in a very long time. In fact...you really can't get much evener. Both teams are at 4-2, both teams have wins against Cane Bay, Wando, and West Ashley, and both teams have losses against Stratford and Goose Creek. Fort is averaging 36.1 points per game and allowing 22.8 points per game. Summerville is averaging 30.8 points per game and allowing 17.6 points per game. Fort Dorchester has outscored their opponents by a total of 80 points so far this season, Summerville has outscored opponents by 79 points so far this season.

These numbers are close, but the numbers are even more significant given the fact that Fort and Summerville have played almost the exact same schedule. If you take out Fort Dorchester's 62-14 win over Carolina Forest and Summerville's 43-20 win over Berkeley you actually do have an identical schedule. When taking out these lopsided victories for both teams you get a much clearer picture of how these teams fared against like opponents and how both teams might stack against each other.

With the averages adjusted to only reflect like opponents both teams are 3-2, Fort Dorchester averages 31.0 ppg, while allowing 24.6 ppg. Summerville averages 28.4 ppg while allowing 17.2 ppg.

Comparing point differential game by game:

Cane Bay - Fort +31 / Summerville +28
Wando - Fort +28 / Summerville +26
West Ashley - Fort +7 / Summerville +21
Goose Creek - Fort -21 / Summerville -17
Stratford - Fort -13 / Summerville -2

Total - Fort +32 / Summerville +56



So based on these new adjusted numbers...it seems like Fort has a slightly better offense, while Summerville has a better defense. Fort played a little better against Cane Bay and Wando, Summerville played better against West Ashley, Stratford and Goose Creek. But what's all this mean? Nothing. I'm just bored and trying to waste time till Friday night.


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Numbers aren't important anyway. I find that the eye test is a much better indication of a matchup than anything else. I haven't seen Summerville so I really can't say, but I can talk a little about Fort Dorchester. I'd classify Fort as a running team, though they do like to pass and have opened up the passing game substantially since the first few games. On defense they pressure the QB well and play strong up front, but have youth and inexperience in the secondary which makes them susceptible to home run type touchdowns against the pass (poor coverage) and the run (not much run support from defensive backs). Fort seems to struggle particularly against mobile QB's. They put great pressure on the QB, but if he can escape the initial push he can expose some weaknesses either running or passing. I don't know Summerville's QB very well yet, but I hope he is more of a pocket passer for the Patriots sake. Fort Dorchester has a great weapon in it's punter #83 who is one of the best athletes on the field. He can punt and kick, he's a great WR, can play QB and has great athletic instinct. I feel like maybe Fort has been playing possum with him a little bit and are saving up some of his plays for Friday. If I had to give an X factor to anyone on the team it would be him. I don't know that for a fact, just a bit of speculation on my part, but I'd keep an eye on him.



So what do you guys think? I know this is long winded and pretty in depth for a high school matchup, but this is what I do. I'd really like to see some input though. And I hope nobody is disappointed at the lack of trash talk. I'll be in trash talk mode by tomorrow


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Can this be the year that Fort wins? Will Coach Laprad finally get a win over his former school? Can I finally be free of high school football so I can move on with my life? Will Britney Spears return to pop dominance? Well...we'll find out most of those answers by the end of Friday night.



My prediction:

Fort Dorchester - 66
Summerville - 6

Thanks for posting this here!

Great analysis. Love all the time you put into the numbers and I wish I could attend this game. I eagerly await game updates!

Let the "pre-games" begin!!! On the flip side I have not seen The Fort play but have not missed a Summerville game this year. I do know from your summary and from just reading articles on The Fort's season thus far that they have several running backs who can put up big numbers in a hurry. And that is not even mentioning the 325 lb lineman who has converted to a RB in the last few games for short yardage situations. I even heard through my Fort D spy that he is being used as a receiver in practice this week. This same player has been rumored to be capable of a standing back flip!!! Man, if that is true, he will be tough to stop on short yardage downs. Athletic, fast and huge!!! Pertaining to Summerville, this is probably the best defense we have had in quite a long time. The loss of Smalls in the secondary caused some early season adjustments. Without a doubt I thought going into the Stratford game that our secondary would be our downfall if we lost. Walking away from Stackley field last Friday night I can tell you that even though we got the L our team knew they could have easily won that game. We played toe to toe with one of the highest rated qbs in the state. Holding Stratford to 28 was quite the accomplishment and one which almost landed Summerville the W. On offense, our QB Bridges is more of a pocket passer which sounds like it plays into the hand of Fort D. However, with the acquisition of Coach King from Goose Creek our OL has made huge strides in the right direction. It will be interesting to see the matchup between Summerville's OL and The Fort's DL. Another interesting twist is Summerville's hurry up offense. I do not recall us running a hurry up in quite a long time. It can wear a defense down very quickly.

I believe this is going to be one of the better Summerville-Fort D matches in quite some time. Unlike DFactor however, I hope for a Summerville win to better align my Wave for a quality playoff seeding. I firmly believe that what we will be watching this Friday night will be the Region VIII championship.

My Prediction:
Summerville 31
Fort D 30

Let me say that I hope Summerville wins so that Dfactor has to keep posting these threads every year!

Good to see the Fort improving and also good to see Summerville putting things back together. Always amusing to see how fans see a blip on the graph and immediately claim a paradigm shift. If Byrnes doesn't win a championship folks claim the dynasty is over. Summerville had some down years and some folks tried to say that Mckissick was washed up.

Heck I was guilty of it myself. I actually remember thinking 3 years ago that Dorman had arrived and we'd be the big dog year in and year out. I didn't anticipate Gaffney storming back onto the main stage like they did in 2011.

I realize now how fluid it can be.

The Mohawks the hawian shirts. The screen passes to your 300 pound rb the blitzes the spread with one big back.will not be enough to save your beloved pats.

Hmmmm......Are we getting our info from the same Patriot spy???? I heard the same thing about the screen passes to the 325 lb rb.

GoBigGreen wrote:Hmmmm......Are we getting our info from the same Patriot spy???? I heard the same thing about the screen passes to the 325 lb rb.

No the second time i heard that i really didnt even know the guy so it must be true.heard they got some kinda hb pass reverse thing to.

They did have the camo pants lol.BLACKJACK