First Look at Playoff Projections for 11/2

[Rebel-Fan-74]

The first thing that I see is this:

THE SCHSL HAS TO CHANGE THE POINTS SYSTEM!!!!

Wade Hampton, with a 1-6 Region Record get six games where they earn the half point bonus and appear to be playoff bound over teams with better records due to the 3 point bonus. They should have no better than 29 points, but will end up with 32 and win the tie breaker because teams playing them get more wins because they beat them....

The bonus points should be for any AAAA team with a winning record, not just the sixteen schools with the most students. Why in the world does a win over 6-5 West Ashley count more than a win over a 10-1 Stratford?????

[EHSMeanGreen]

Heck, you think it's bad now.
Back in the 80's it would have been "6" extra points.

I don't complain about it as much now just because I remember how bad it was then.

I noticed that this was a possibility last week. (Mauldin getting to 6 wins).
Wade Hampton could tie in points at 32 and win the opponent wins tie-breaker.
Just from my faint memory.

Gotta go to a baseball game, will finish calculating mine LATER...

[Rebel-Fan-74]

Division One could be taking shape.

Key games for Division One:
Region One: Hillcrest is #1 Automatic Bid

Region Two: Byrnes is #1 Automatic Bid, Gaffney is the #2 Automatic Bid. Boiling Springs, Dorman, Mauldin and Spartanburg are in and who is the #3 and #4 and who is At Large is not really a big deal since they would all be seeded at the same time any way.

Region Three: Rock Hill is #4 Automatic Bid or At Large

Region Four: Spring Valley is #1 Automatic Bid

Region Five: Dutch Fork - North Augusta A Dutch Fork win and they are the #1 Automatic Bid, a NA win and we could have a three way tie if Lexington wins over White Knoll and the AAAA points system will determine the Region Champion. I'm predicting a Dutch Fork win. So that would project as: DF #1 Automatic Bid and Lexington as the #2 Automatic Bid

Region Six: Sumter is the #2 Automatic Bid

Region Seven: Wando is the #3 Automatic Bid

Region Eight: Summerville is the #1 Automatic Bid. Should Ashley Ridge beat Fort Dorchester, AR is the #2 Automatic Bid even if they end up tied with Beaufort due to head to head. If Fort Dorchester wins and Beaufort beats Colleton County, then Fort D is #3, and a Fort D win and Beaufort loss to CC, then Fort D becomes #3 and either way, AR would fall to an AT LARGE with a loss to Fort D.

So, in summary....
1 Wando #3 Region 7
2 Dorman #3,#4 or At Large Region Two
3 Summerville #1 Region 8
4 Sumter #2 Region 6
5 Boiling Springs #3 or #4 from Region 2
6 Byrnes #1 Region Two
7 West Ashley OUT unless they get some sort of miracle
8 Mauldin #3, #4 or At Large from Region Two
9 Dutch Fork #1 or #2 from Region Five
10 Hillcrest #1 from Region One
11 Ashley Ridge #2 or At Large from Region Eight
12 Fort Dorchester #2 #3 or At Large From Region Eight
13 Gaffney #2 from Region Two
14 Spring Valley #1 from Region Five
15 Clover ELIMINATED
16 Carolina Forest ELIMINATED
17 Rock Hill #4 or At Large bid from Region Three
18 White Knoll ELIMINATED
19 Lexington #2 or #3 from Region Five
20 Spartanburg AT LARGE

So there are the Division One teams

[Rebel-Fan-74]

Keep in mind, there are still 26 AAAA games to be played and many of them have bearing on these brackets. While some things are set as far as "being in the playoffs" the "WHERE YOU END UP" is still to be determined.

Very little of this bracket is a done deal... it is still a projection!

1 Byrnes
16 Wando

8 Ashley Ridge
9 Sumter
====================================================
4 Summerville
13 Spartanburg

5 Spring Valley
12 Mauldin
==================================================================================
2 Dutch Fork
15 Rock Hill

7 Gaffney
10 Boiling Springs
=====================================================
3 Hillcrest
14 Fort Dorchester

6 Lexington
11 Dorman

[Rebel-Fan-74]

Division Two.... to sum it up, TO BE DETERMINED

Region One - Other than Hillcrest is #1, nothing is set. EHS MEAN GREEN summed it up in another thread quite well... check it out.
http://www.scpreptalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=954

Region Two... Wade Hampton could very well get in based on the note above. I'm on record with my feelings and it is not personal against Wade Hampton... I don't know anyone or any thing about them. I just think a 6-5 team losing out to a 3-8 team because the 3-8 team wins a tiebreaker because they go beat???? The tie breaker is opponents wins.

Region Three - Northwestern is #1, South Pointe is #2 and York is #3 and Nation Ford is #4 or At Large

Region Four - Irmo #2 and Blythewood #3 is the current look

Region Five - See notes above for DF, NA, Lexington shuffle. NA winning would shuffle the brackets for both Divisions

Region Six - HAIL TO THE BRUINS!!! #1, #3 goes to West Florence... but what if West pulls the upset? HAIL TO THE BRUINS!!! They have the three way tiebreaker in points, it appears.

Region Seven - Who doesn't know that the Gators and Knights are playing for the Region Title? Winner is #1 and loser is #2 automatic bid.

Region Eight - Ashley Ridge -vs- Fort Dorchester helps determine the Division One standing of those two teams, but Beaufort could manage to get the #2 seed should Fort D beat AR....

So, you can see that Division Two is very much to be determined. While I see a lot of things up for grabs when it comes to seedings, many positions are filled!



1 Goose Creek
16 West Florence

8 York
9 Beaufort
------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Stratford
13 Laurens

5 Greenwood
12 Blythewood
==================================================================
2 Northwestern
15 Wade Hampton

7 Irmo
10 North Augusta
--------------------------------------------------------------------
3 South Florence
14 Easley

6 South Pointe
11 Nation Ford

[IndianFan09]

Long time lurker. First time poster here.

Totally agree with the idea that teams shouldn't be rewarded for losing. At the very least the tiebreaker shouldn't be Opponent win-loss but rather opponent win-loss minus opponent's win's versus you.

Sadly that wouldn't rectify this situation as the tiebreaker standings would be as follows(based on SF Band Dad's chart)

Wade Hampton 47-33
White Knoll 40-40
West Ashley 42-37

But, if in addition to this they only awarded the bonus half point based on whether your opponent would have a winning record without playing you then Wade Hampton would probably not get a bonus point for playing Spartanburg and might not get an extra point for playing Mauldin.

Regardless teams should not be getting rewarded for losing but sadly the points and tiebreaker system is set up that way.

[SF Band dad]

Welcome!

Since I also do a 3A standings page I had to figure out their point system this year. I really like it.

It rewards you for winning, it rewards you for playing larger schools, it rewards you for playing good teams.

In summary -
- Start with a base number of points based on the opponent's classification:

• 4A - 3 points
  3A - 2.5 points
  2A - 2 points
  1A - 1.5 points

- Add 1 point for a win.
- Add 0.1 points for each of the opponent's wins

Using this system:
A loss to a 10-1 Byrnes = 3 + 0 +1.0 = 4.0
A win against 1-10 Clover = 3 + 1 + 0.1 = 4.1

[Rebel-Fan-74]

Changing only:

I used the BIG 16 formula and put it for all AAAA schools.

So it doesn't matter if they are Big 16, it only
matters if they have a winning record.... so a win over
6-5 West Ashley counts the same as a win over
6-5 Laurens

1 Byrnes
16 Wando

8 Ashley Ridge
9 Sumter

4 Summerville
13 Fort Dorchester

5 Hillcrest
12 Spartanburg

2 Dutch Fork
15 Rock Hill

7 Gaffney
10 Boiling Springs

3 Spring Valley
14 Mauldin

6 Lexington
11 Dorman



1 Northwestern
16 West Florence

8 South Pointe
9 Beaufort

4 Stratford
13 Fort Mill

5 York
12 Blythewood

2 Goose Creek
15 Easley

7 Irmo
10 North Augusta

3 South Florence
14 Laurens

6 Greenwood
11 Nation Ford

[Sniper24]

I have lived, played, and coached and was even an athletic director for three different major military bases all over the world, and I have never seen a playoff format system like the one here. I have heard for years the high school league in S.C. was corrupt and run by men with no character and I believe that was proven to be true last year (with Goose Creek), but the more I try to figure the system out the less I seem to know.

I get them trying to assign a point system to reward...and penalize teams based on their schedule, and opponents won/lost record but there has to be some sort of "eye test" put on it. There is no way a (3-7) Wade Hampton team deserves to be in and a (6-4) White Knoll team or a West Ashley (5-5) left out. Not to mention Bluffton.

In fairness, I am new to the area and the state so I do not know each of the teams schedules and broken tem down win by win or loss by loss (I will nest year as I get ore into it) but there as to be some sort of checks and balances system for this playoff system.

For you guys who know and understand this better than I, is there a scenario out there that can have Summerville move into either the two or the three seed?

[IndianFan09]

I really like that 3A setup. It would give an added component to strength of schedule(beyond "did they win 6 games). If 4A went to that system I'd like to see the opponents wins tiebreaker dropped as well. My logic for this is that using that as the tiebreaker is basically dropping the bonus points for playing bigger schools and in theory giving it to whoever played the "weakest" schedule. I'd have to run the math on that before I'd be sure on that one, but I think that's what would happen.

I really like the idea of dropping the "Big 16" points advantage.

I think the current system does some things really well(rewards good region play) but it does need some serious tweeking.