4A region 6 scenarios

[SF Band dad]

The standings at the end of week 10:
4 - 0 _ Sumter
3 - 1 _ Conway
2 - 2 _ South Florence
2 - 2 _ Carolina Forest
1 - 3 _ Socastee
0 - 4 _ West Florence

Week 11 games
Carolina Forest at Conway
South Florence at West Florence
Socastee at Sumter

Sumter has locked up 1st place. Their game with Socastee is almost irrelevant.

Corrected 1 Nov
Conway has an automatic berth locked up. They can secure 2nd place with a win over CF.
A loss, plus a SF win over WF results in a 3-way tie, Conway retains 2nd place based on points.
A loss, plus a SF loss results in a 2-way tie with CF, CF gets 2nd place based on the head-to-head win.

South Florence can secure 3rd place with a win over WF.
A loss, plus a CF loss to Conway results in a 2-way tie with CF, SF retains 3rd place based on the head-to-head win.
A loss, plus a CF win moves SF down to 4th place. SF would have 31.5 points which will probably be below the cut for an at-large playoff berth.

Carolina Forest can move into 2nd place if they defeat Conway AND WF defeats SF.
All other outcomes result in them staying in 4th place.
Carolina Forest is in the hunt for an at-large berth. They have earned a minimum of 32 points, +1 if they defeat Conway, +1 if Darlington defeats Manning and finishes with a winning record.

Socastee and West Florence have a lock on 5th and 6th place.

[Go Tigers]

The standings at the end of week 10:
4 - 0 _ Sumter
3 - 1 _ Conway
2 - 2 _ South Florence
2 - 2 _ Carolina Forest
1 - 3 _ Socastee
0 - 4 _ West Florence

Sumter has locked up 1st place.
Conway has locked up 2nd place.
South Florence can secure the #3 spot with a win over WF, or with a loss and a Conway win over Carolina Forest.
To move into 3rd place Carolina Forest needs to defeat Conway and needs WF to defeat SF.
Socastee and West Florence have a lock on 5th and 6th place.

The top 3 get an automatic playoff berth. If SF finishes in 4th they will not have enough points for an at-large berth. Carolina Forest might be in the running for an at-large if they finish in 4th.

Actually.......Conway only has 3rd locked up. Carolina Forest can take 2nd with a win over Conway, plus a West Florence win over South Florence.

If that plays out it looks like this
Sumter
Carolina Forest
Conway
South Florence
Socastee
West Florence

[SF Band dad]

I was about to point out your errors,....until I realized you are right. I got those two other Horry County teams mixed up.

Sorry, that's embarrassing.

I did correctly ID that scenario as the one that puts SF out of the playoffs, but didn't consider the other implications.

A CF win over Conway, and an SF loss to WF, not only puts SF out of the playoffs but moves CF all the way up to 2nd place and drops Conway to 3rd.

SF and Conway both control their own destiny. CF is playing for a shot at 2nd place, or an assured at-large berth. If CF loses they may still get an at-large berth if Darlington defeats Manning and gives them another point.

[SF Band dad]

The other "what if"... CF defeats Conway, SF defeats WF ==> 3-way tie between Conway, SF & CF.

Conway takes 2nd based on points.
SF takes 3rd based on head-to-head win over CF
CF is in 4th, but with the win earns enough points for an at-large berth.

[SF Band dad]

I've corrected the initial post.