4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated 10/31/15

[GreenandGoldWave]

Why haven't Goose Creek and Ashley Ridge rescheduled there game yet? Goose Creek would need this game because a win gives them another .5 point with Ashley Ridge being Big 16 and winning record. Wouldn't it help Ashley Ridge with points too since Goose Creek would have a winning record regardless and they both can mark off someone with a losing record?

[GoBigGreen]

For Ashley Ridge there is not much to gain as they are undefeated and you get two markoffs so there is no upside to making up the game. They will take the extra week to get healthy and ready for the playoffs 2 weeks later. For Goose Creek, they could earn the extra 1/2 playoff point but have possibly looked at where they are at and determined that the extra point will likely not increase their playoff seed. They can not catch FD. They could possibly catch DF which would move them to the other side of the Div I bracket. They may like the way the bracket is laying out with them at the #3 seed(no Byrnes, no DF, no Hillcrest, etc). Who knows ....

[Underdog]

The Gators are in the same boat. No real advantage to playing the game. With our fb ailing, along with others,we also need the week to heal.

[EHSMeanGreen]

For Ashley Ridge there is not much to gain as they are undefeated and you get two markoffs so there is no upside to making up the game. They will take the extra week to get healthy and ready for the playoffs 2 weeks later. For Goose Creek, they could earn the extra 1/2 playoff point but have possibly looked at where they are at and determined that the extra point will likely not increase their playoff seed. They can not catch FD. They could possibly catch DF which would move them to the other side of the Div I bracket. They may like the way the bracket is laying out with them at the #3 seed(no Byrnes, no DF, no Hillcrest, etc). Who knows ....

I believe that GoBigGreen is correct.

At a glance, Goose Creek's position doesn't appear that it would be helped by the extra half point (if they played and beat AR).

Sumter could tie GC in points (if they win and Carolina Forest beats Conway),
but Goose Creek should have an advantage in the opponent wins category.

Goose Creek won't catch Dutch Fork in points (if DF wins). DF should win, they play Lugoff-Elgin.

[Tigerific]

CF will finish with a losing record so no half point. One more opponents win could help a tiebreaker but that's it.

[EHSMeanGreen]

CF will finish with a losing record so no half point. One more opponents win could help a tiebreaker but that's it.

Said with CONFIDENCE

[Tigerific]

[oli3]

Thanks to MeanGreen and Rebel Fan for their work on this... I am curious a bit on the relative point totals for Hillcrest and Dorman. MeanGreen has Dorman at 7th seed and Hillcrest at 8th seed (both 38.5 vs 38). RebelFan, what are your totals for those two schools?

Thanks

[SF Band dad]

Hillcrest has 41 raw points earned, 35 after marking off two 3 point losses.
- Defeat Woodmont (+1)
- Mauldin finishes with a winning record by defeating Boiling Springs (+0.5)
Max points with markoffs: 36.5
Max points without markoffs: 42.5

Dorman has 41.5 raw points earned, 35 after marking off a 3 and a 3.5 point loss.
- Defeat Riverside (+1)
- Mauldin finishes with a winning record by defeating Boiling Springs (+0.5)
- Boiling Springs finishes with a winning record by defeating Mauldin (+0.5)
Max points with markoffs: 36.5
Max points without markoffs: 43

Very interesting, my spreadsheet is lying to me about Dorman. Since they are playing each other, either Mauldin or Boiling Springs will give Dorman that half point, but they can't get both.

[SF Band dad]

If Dorman & Hillcrest tie on points w/mark-offs, Dorman has the advantage on the opponent wins & losses.

_______with markoffs____without
Dorman -- 35 - 55 _ _ _ _ _ 51 - 59
Hillcrest - 27 - 63 _ _ _ _ _ 43 - 67