4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated 10/31/15

Discussions for fans of all teams and all classes of South Carolina High School Football.
oli3
No Team Affiliation
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 5:03 pm

Re: 4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated 10/31/15

Post by oli3 »

SF Band dad wrote:If Dorman & Hillcrest tie on points w/mark-offs, Dorman has the advantage on the opponent wins & losses.

_______with markoffs____without
Dorman -- 35 - 55 _ _ _ _ _ 51 - 59
Hillcrest - 27 - 63 _ _ _ _ _ 43 - 67

That looks right to me. Thanks for the analysis.

Darth Rebel
Byrnes Rebels
Posts: 49
Joined: Sat Nov 16, 2013 3:16 pm

Re: 4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated 10/31/15

Post by Darth Rebel »

I'm glad this is the last year of this. I know most of you don't like how the 5A is going to be done but i am. It's a shame we have very good teams in Spartanburg,Northwestern, Byrnes,Dutch Fork,Dorman Hillcrest and Westside and they will be split up. What a great playoffs we would have this year if it was just one champion

User avatar
SF Band dad
South Florence Bruins
Posts: 3817
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2013 6:14 pm
Location: Florence

Re: 4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated 10/31/15

Post by SF Band dad »

Darth Rebel wrote:I'm glad this is the last year of this. I know most of you don't like how the 5A is going to be done but i am. It's a shame we have very good teams in Spartanburg,Northwestern, Byrnes,Dutch Fork,Dorman Hillcrest and Westside and they will be split up. What a great playoffs we would have this year if it was just one champion
Consider that most of those teams will shoved into branches of the same bracket, some of those match-ups will be first round games.

Rebel-Fan-74
Byrnes Rebels
Posts: 3436
Joined: Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:47 am
Location: LA LA LAND

Re: 4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated 10/31/15

Post by Rebel-Fan-74 »

oli3 wrote:Thanks to MeanGreen and Rebel Fan for their work on this... I am curious a bit on the relative point totals for Hillcrest and Dorman. MeanGreen has Dorman at 7th seed and Hillcrest at 8th seed (both 38.5 vs 38). RebelFan, what are your totals for those two schools?

Thanks


SF covered it, but one more thing to point out, I took a few picks different than EHS did in my projection and one was Mauldin and B Springs, just to show it from a different perspective.
.

- * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * -* -
I'm thinking about entering the transfer portal!
- * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * -* -

Rebel-Fan-74
Byrnes Rebels
Posts: 3436
Joined: Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:47 am
Location: LA LA LAND

Re: 4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated 10/31/15

Post by Rebel-Fan-74 »

Reg 1 Easley - over - Greenville
Reg 1 Greenwood - over - Laurens
Reg 1 Westside - over - TL Hanna
Reg 1 Hillcrest - over - Woodmont
**** A Laurens win and the bracket gets a make over... Laurens goes from basketball season to #3 from Region #1 and somewhere in the #13 - #15 Seed in Division II. Hillcrest would also end up as #2 from the Region and improve their seed as well. A T L Hanna win over Westside shakes the D2 bracket up as well...

Reg 2 Spartanburg - over - JL Mann
Reg 2 Dorman - over - Riverside
Reg 2 Byrnes - over - Wade Hampton
Reg 2 Boiling Springs - over - Mauldin
**** If all else holds true, the winner of the B. Springs game is at Hillcrest and the Loser is at Dorman.... but we know all else will not hold true, there will be some surprise along the way Friday night.

Reg 3 Nation Ford - over - Rock Hill
Reg 3 Northwestern - over - Gaffney
Reg 3 York - over - Clover
***** The biggest BOMB could be Gaffney upsetting Northwestern. Gaffney goes from #12 or #13 seed to possibly as high as the #4 seed while dropping Northwestern from the #1 or #2 seed to at least #4 in Division 2. And to answer the next question, in every "what if" that I ran today and yesterday, Northwestern ends up in Division 2. I'm not saying it can't happen, but I haven't found the way to make them stay in Division 1.

Reg 4 Dutch Fork - over - Lugoff-Elgin
Reg 4 Ridge View - over - Blythewood
Reg 4 Westwood - over - Spring Valley
Spring Valley - over - Blythewood

**** Because they have a make up game, Blythewood and Spring Valley have two chances to improve their standings. They could make some impact, but considering Westwood is one of Spring Valley's games, maybe the chances are not as impactful.

Reg 5 Irmo - over - River Bluff
Reg 5 Lexington - over - White Knoll
Reg 5 North Augusta - over - South Aiken
**** Other than Lexington, no one here seems capable of making any kind of impact, but if could shift a few lower seeded teams based on Friday.

Reg 6 Conway - over - Carolina Forest
Reg 6 Sumter - over - Socastee
Reg 6 South Florence - over - West Florence
**** I think the first three games in Region II are the only games I would say are safer picks than these three. Not much impact on the bracket here.

Reg 7 Cane Bay - over - West Ashley
Reg 7 Goose Creek - over - Stratford
Reg 7 Wando - over - James Island
**** Region 7 has not been much to write home about this season... The only real question, does Wando squeek in? If they don't make it, this is the best chance for Northwestern to end up in Division One... Wando not making it by losing to James Island and Bluffton knocking out Summerville. If James Island and Bluffton win, Northwestern can make it to Division One.
Reg 8 Summerville - over - Bluffton
Reg 8 Fort Dorchester - over - Ashley Ridge
Bottom Line, Summerville win overy Bluffton they are in. Bluffton wins, they put Colleton County in... I don't think Bluffton can make it to the playoffs.
.

- * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * -* -
I'm thinking about entering the transfer portal!
- * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * -* -

FootballFan4343
HS Football Fanatic
Posts: 406
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2014 7:31 am

Re: 4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated 10/31/15

Post by FootballFan4343 »

EHSMeanGreen wrote:4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated: October 31,2015
Image

Some Projected Region Records...
Region 1................Region 2.........................Region 3............................Region 4
Westside 6-1...........Spartanburg 6-1................Northwestern 6-0.................Dutch Fork 4-1
TL Hanna 5-2............Byrnes 6-1.....................York 4-2............................Westwood 4-1
Hillcrest 5-2.............Dorman 5-2....................Nation Ford 4-2....................Blythewood 3-2
Greenwood 4-3...........Boiling Springs 5-2..........Gaffney 4-2.........................Ridge View 3-2
Laurens 4-3..............Mauldin 3-4....................Fort Mill 2-4........................Spring Valley 2-3
Easley 3-4..............

Region 5................Region 6.........................Region 7............................Region 8
Lexington 5-0..........Sumter 5-0......................Goose Creek 5-0...................Fort D 4-0
River Bluff 3-2.........Conway 4-1......................Cane Bay 4-1.......................Ashley Ridge 3-1
North Augusta 2-3.....South Florence 3-2.............Wando 2-3..........................Summerville 2-2
White Knoll 2-3........Carolina Forest 2-3.............West Ashley 2-3....................Colleton County 1-3
Irmo 2-3

This is about 80% complete.
I am currently studying all the Out-of-State, 3A, and 2A opponents to see who might get to 6 wins....
I will see how that could affect the brackets.
So there may be an update.
I'll give more details later.
If York-Nation Ford-Gaffney finished all tied, Gaffney would get the 2nd seed, Nation Ford 3rd, and York 4th from the region. The tiebreaker is defensive points allowed in the games the three played each other. That would give Gaffney the 2 seed. So they look to be in decent shape for a home playoff game even with a loss.

Rebel-Fan-74
Byrnes Rebels
Posts: 3436
Joined: Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:47 am
Location: LA LA LAND

Re: 4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated 10/31/15

Post by Rebel-Fan-74 »

FootballFan4343 wrote:
EHSMeanGreen wrote:4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated: October 31,2015
Image

Some Projected Region Records...
Region 1................Region 2.........................Region 3............................Region 4
Westside 6-1...........Spartanburg 6-1................Northwestern 6-0.................Dutch Fork 4-1
TL Hanna 5-2............Byrnes 6-1.....................York 4-2............................Westwood 4-1
Hillcrest 5-2.............Dorman 5-2....................Nation Ford 4-2....................Blythewood 3-2
Greenwood 4-3...........Boiling Springs 5-2..........Gaffney 4-2.........................Ridge View 3-2
Laurens 4-3..............Mauldin 3-4....................Fort Mill 2-4........................Spring Valley 2-3
Easley 3-4..............

Region 5................Region 6.........................Region 7............................Region 8
Lexington 5-0..........Sumter 5-0......................Goose Creek 5-0...................Fort D 4-0
River Bluff 3-2.........Conway 4-1......................Cane Bay 4-1.......................Ashley Ridge 3-1
North Augusta 2-3.....South Florence 3-2.............Wando 2-3..........................Summerville 2-2
White Knoll 2-3........Carolina Forest 2-3.............West Ashley 2-3....................Colleton County 1-3
Irmo 2-3

This is about 80% complete.
I am currently studying all the Out-of-State, 3A, and 2A opponents to see who might get to 6 wins....
I will see how that could affect the brackets.
So there may be an update.
I'll give more details later.
If York-Nation Ford-Gaffney finished all tied, Gaffney would get the 2nd seed, Nation Ford 3rd, and York 4th from the region. The tiebreaker is defensive points allowed in the games the three played each other. That would give Gaffney the 2 seed. So they look to be in decent shape for a home playoff game even with a loss.

That is not the tie breaker in AAAA...

If head to head doesn't break the tie, you use the AAAA Playoff Point System

http://www.schsl.org" target="_blank

AAAA Handbook,
VI. Point System (Both Divisions) If Won If Lost
Division I (winning record) + 4½ + 3½
Division I (non-winning record) + 4 + 3
Division II & (AAA with winning record) + 4 + 3
AAA & (AA with winning record) + 3 + 1
AA & (A with winning record) + 2 - 1
A + 1 - 3

*If a Class A, AA or AAA team with a 5-5 record advances to the 2nd round of their play-offs, the record shall be counted as a winning record.

Tie Breaking Procedure: In case the point system does not gain a solution, the following will be used to seed teams:
1. If two teams are tied in the point system and the two teams played, the head-to-head winner will get the top seed. If there is a three-way tie and one team beats the other two teams, the winner will get the top seed. Also, if there are more teams tied for a particular seed, the point system will be used to seed the team. Seeds will be filled one at a time and the process will start back at the top of the point system.
2. The team whose opponents have the most victories (all games except mark off).
3. The team whose opponents have the fewest defeats (all games except mark off) will receive the top seeding.
4. Start back at the first step of the point system but include the mark off game. In a situation where the two teams have played a different number of games (11 or 10), the team playing eleven games will include the one (1) mark off that maximizes points. If both teams played the same number of games, then all mark offs will be added back before totaling points.

If not resolved by above method, it will be resolved by a coin toss supervised by the Football Committee.
.

- * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * -* -
I'm thinking about entering the transfer portal!
- * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * -* -

FootballFan4343
HS Football Fanatic
Posts: 406
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2014 7:31 am

Re: 4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated 10/31/15

Post by FootballFan4343 »

Rebel-Fan-74 wrote:
FootballFan4343 wrote:
EHSMeanGreen wrote:4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated: October 31,2015
Image

Some Projected Region Records...
Region 1................Region 2.........................Region 3............................Region 4
Westside 6-1...........Spartanburg 6-1................Northwestern 6-0.................Dutch Fork 4-1
TL Hanna 5-2............Byrnes 6-1.....................York 4-2............................Westwood 4-1
Hillcrest 5-2.............Dorman 5-2....................Nation Ford 4-2....................Blythewood 3-2
Greenwood 4-3...........Boiling Springs 5-2..........Gaffney 4-2.........................Ridge View 3-2
Laurens 4-3..............Mauldin 3-4....................Fort Mill 2-4........................Spring Valley 2-3
Easley 3-4..............

Region 5................Region 6.........................Region 7............................Region 8
Lexington 5-0..........Sumter 5-0......................Goose Creek 5-0...................Fort D 4-0
River Bluff 3-2.........Conway 4-1......................Cane Bay 4-1.......................Ashley Ridge 3-1
North Augusta 2-3.....South Florence 3-2.............Wando 2-3..........................Summerville 2-2
White Knoll 2-3........Carolina Forest 2-3.............West Ashley 2-3....................Colleton County 1-3
Irmo 2-3

This is about 80% complete.
I am currently studying all the Out-of-State, 3A, and 2A opponents to see who might get to 6 wins....
I will see how that could affect the brackets.
So there may be an update.
I'll give more details later.
If York-Nation Ford-Gaffney finished all tied, Gaffney would get the 2nd seed, Nation Ford 3rd, and York 4th from the region. The tiebreaker is defensive points allowed in the games the three played each other. That would give Gaffney the 2 seed. So they look to be in decent shape for a home playoff game even with a loss.

That is not the tie breaker in AAAA...

If head to head doesn't break the tie, you use the AAAA Playoff Point System

http://www.schsl.org" target="_blank

AAAA Handbook,
VI. Point System (Both Divisions) If Won If Lost
Division I (winning record) + 4½ + 3½
Division I (non-winning record) + 4 + 3
Division II & (AAA with winning record) + 4 + 3
AAA & (AA with winning record) + 3 + 1
AA & (A with winning record) + 2 - 1
A + 1 - 3

*If a Class A, AA or AAA team with a 5-5 record advances to the 2nd round of their play-offs, the record shall be counted as a winning record.

Tie Breaking Procedure: In case the point system does not gain a solution, the following will be used to seed teams:
1. If two teams are tied in the point system and the two teams played, the head-to-head winner will get the top seed. If there is a three-way tie and one team beats the other two teams, the winner will get the top seed. Also, if there are more teams tied for a particular seed, the point system will be used to seed the team. Seeds will be filled one at a time and the process will start back at the top of the point system.
2. The team whose opponents have the most victories (all games except mark off).
3. The team whose opponents have the fewest defeats (all games except mark off) will receive the top seeding.
4. Start back at the first step of the point system but include the mark off game. In a situation where the two teams have played a different number of games (11 or 10), the team playing eleven games will include the one (1) mark off that maximizes points. If both teams played the same number of games, then all mark offs will be added back before totaling points.

If not resolved by above method, it will be resolved by a coin toss supervised by the Football Committee.
That is for STATEWIDE tiebreakers in terms of team's having the same amount of points. Each region has its own tiebreaking procedure for their 1st-4th qualifiers. Region 3-4A, per York Athletic Director is defensive points allowed in games against each other among the tied teams. So basically in the case of Region 3, Gaffney would be the 2nd seed from that region.
Now once Gaffney QUALIFY's as Region 3's 2nd seed, if they finish with say 36 points and Hillcrest from Region 1 is the 2nd seed from their region and also has 36 points, then your statewide tiebreaker would come into play in terms of who is seeded higher. I may be wrong, but this is directly from him and when asked about the statewide procedure, he said that does not pertain to each region's automatic qualifiers. He said each Region presents to the SCHSL its 1st-4th finishers. The SCHSL then determines the "points" for each team in terms of seeding.

User avatar
EHSMeanGreen
Easley Green Wave
Posts: 2436
Joined: Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:32 pm

Re: 4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated 10/31/15

Post by EHSMeanGreen »

FootballFan4343 wrote: That is for STATEWIDE tiebreakers in terms of team's having the same amount of points. Each region has its own tiebreaking procedure for their 1st-4th qualifiers. Region 3-4A, per York Athletic Director is defensive points allowed in games against each other among the tied teams.
That is for 4A Region Trophies only. At their Region meetings.

3A and 2A Regions have the right to determine their own tie-breakers when it comes to playoff seeding.
4A Regions do not have that right.

3-way ties within Regions are determined by the 4A point system.

If what you are stating was true.
Easley would have made the playoffs last year as the 4th place automatic qualifier from Region 1.
Easley was 4th in Region One according to the Region tie-breakers.
Easley did not make the playoffs last year.

FootballFan4343
HS Football Fanatic
Posts: 406
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2014 7:31 am

Re: 4A Projections after Week 10 - Updated 10/31/15

Post by FootballFan4343 »

EHSMeanGreen wrote:
FootballFan4343 wrote: That is for STATEWIDE tiebreakers in terms of team's having the same amount of points. Each region has its own tiebreaking procedure for their 1st-4th qualifiers. Region 3-4A, per York Athletic Director is defensive points allowed in games against each other among the tied teams.
That is for 4A Region Trophies only. At their Region meetings.

3A and 2A Regions have the right to determine their own tie-breakers when it comes to playoff seeding.
4A Regions do not have that right.

3-way ties within Regions are determined by the 4A point system.

If what you are stating was true.
Easley would have made the playoffs last year as the 4th place automatic qualifier from Region 1.
Easley was 4th in Region One according to the Region tie-breakers.
Easley did not make the playoffs last year.
Not necessarily. Region 1 might have a different tie breaker. Yorks AD has stated the tiebreaking procedure I listed above is how teams out of Region 3 will be seeded. Maybe he is incorrect, but this is what he has told his team and as the region chair for FB, what he is telling the entire region.

Post Reply