4A Projections after Week 11

[GoBigGreen]

EHS if the 32 teams are known and the only effect of the two games next week is on seeding, can you tell us which seeds could be effected? IE, if Spring Valley and CC win, this is what the bracket will look like. I imagine many of the games shown in your prediction are locked in and those teams can likely start making preparations for 2 weeks down the road. You know which game I am interested in...Can my Summerville Greenwave start preparing for a trip to the Columbia area to take on Dutch Fork?

[SF Band dad]

What is the MIN points spring valley would have even with a lost and a Richland North East lost would that help any other team and do you have any chance of greenwood making it or your last post your final answer

I just posted updated standings with all the point totals. <Mash Here> I don't have all the out-of-state or lower class wins/losses in there yet, but we found all that matter last night.

Spring Valley: Min 31.5
With a win and one more win by RNE: 33.5

I've got Greenwood at 32.5 points, the at-large cut-off was 33.

The at-large teams:
Blythewood 36* (with a win, 35 if they lose)
Mauldin 34
North Augusta 34
Fort Mill 33.5
Carolina Forest 33

Below the cut:
Ridge View 33
Colleton County 33* (with a win and a Beaufort win)
Greenwood 32.5
Stratford 31.5
Easley 31.5

[Murraykeiron123]

So spring valley could be out with a lost with 32.5 points if they lose right just trying to find out cause a lost would put them 4th in there region behind Blythewood and Westwood and dutch fork and I thought only the top three go in that division and the other could get at large and you said 33 is the cut off

[ProgramedWithoutForm]

How many points does a win over a 3A team with a losing record get a 4A team?

[GoBigGreen]

3 points. Check out the thread Some Playoff Questions Answered.

[SF Band dad]

So spring valley could be out with a lost with 32.5 points if they lose right just trying to find out cause a lost would put them 4th in there region behind Blythewood and Westwood and dutch fork and I thought only the top three go in that division and the other could get at large and you said 33 is the cut off

I'm testing all the scenarios now, but I'm pretty sure Spring Valley gets an automatic berth even if they lose.

A loss creates a 3-way tie at 3-2 with Blythewood and Westwood..
- No team wins head-to-head they're all 1-1 against each other.
- Blythewood gets 2nd place based on points.
- Spring Valley gets 3rd place based on the head-to-head win over Westwood
- Westwood gets 4th place, but has enough points for an at-large.

RNE winning or losing has no effect on any of that. However, if RNE wins to achieve a winning record, it gives Westwood and Spring Valley another point which shuffles some of the bracket positions. I'm trying to figure them all out, but some of the ties are being resolved by opponent wins. At least four of them are really close and we won't know for sure until all of their opponents' games are final next week.

[Murraykeiron123]

Ok i thought the head to head goes by points that what I thought when I said Westwood would have been 3rd

[SF Band dad]

Ok i thought the head to head goes by points that what I thought when I said Westwood would have been 3rd

Rebel-Fan-74 explains it very well < Here >.

[SF Band dad]

I don't see anything in "week 12" that will change which 32 teams make the playoffs, but two games have a large effect on the bracket seeding.

Blythewood at Spring Valley
Emerald at Richland NE

These are still preliminary, I haven't verified all of the lower class and out-of-state opponents wins & losses, but I'm pretty sure I checked the important ones. We won't know all the opponent wins/losses until all games are final next week.

8 November Update: I've verified all of the opponent wins & losses, none of the projections below changed. It does not appear that any team has enough opponents remaining to change any seeds based on the opponent wins/losses tiebreaker.

[Rebel-Fan-74]

Well, after one more week, me, Reuben and Jack will officially retire the magic spreadsheets.

Why? Because next year will not have a points system of any kind according to the reports from the SCHSL. Everything will be predetermined brackets so you will not earn your bracket position on the field, it will be determined before the first game of the season.

You could have Region Champ with a 8-5 record hosting a Region Champ with a 13-0 record. For example, let's say Spartanburg didn't fall asleep against Boiling Springs and ended up 10-0 and won the first 3 rounds and the Region 1 Champion was 8-5 and that is the way the bracket was set up back in July, oh well.....

Until this season, I did the projections on a regular basis and I had a lot of fun doing the "what if" because there were so many times that you had so many different possibilities... finding out that a AAA school determines who has a home playoff game and who doesn't???? Of a team on the other side of the state decides if Northwestern is Division One or Division Two???

This year, due to so many things going on, I did not really get involved until the last few weeks. EHSMeanGreen did a great job on the projections and SF Band Dad, well what can you say..... but thanks for making this a great place! Guys, the magic spreadsheets will be missed! Maybe we can get a job with the NCAA Selection Committee?