4A Division I State Championship is on the line Saturday...who's taking home the hardware??
Here's my pick
Dorman - 28
Fort D - 24
Dorman/Fort Dorchester predictions
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DHSClassof1995
- Dorman Cavaliers
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:59 pm
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2002Patriot
- Fort Dorchester Patriots
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Fri Oct 09, 2015 9:03 pm
Re: Dorman/Fort Dorchester predictions
As a homer I have to go
Fort - 35
Dorman - 25
Fort - 35
Dorman - 25
Re: Dorman/Fort Dorchester predictions
I'm a numbers guy and love to look at stats and try to piece things together, but numbers don't win the game, we'll find out on Saturday where both these teams really stand. But since it's only Monday and we have plenty of time till Saturday I'm gonna talk a little bit about the numbers and try to be totally unbiased with my breakdown based on the limited information I have. We only have 2 opponents in common, West Ashley and Boiling Springs. Both teams were 2-0 against these opponents.
Fort Dorchester - 29
West Ashley - 6
Fort Dorchester - 56
Boiling Springs - 34
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Dorman - 52
West Ashley - 27
Dorman - 24
Boiling Springs - 17
In the two games Fort averaged 42.5 points and allowed 20 points and had an average margin of victory of 22.5 - Dorman averaged 38ppg and allowed 22 and had an average margin of victory of 16. So just going by raw numbers i'd say these teams are pretty even with Fort just slightly better statistically against common opponents. Both teams better on offense than defense and both were able to win both games fairly comfortably.
Of course this doesn't really factor everything in. Unfortunately high school stats aren't as easy to get as college/pro stats (although Dorman does a very good job with logging stats!), but anyway I'm having to try to piece some pieces of the puzzle together based on newspaper articles and the few stats I was able to find.
Against West Ashley Dorman had 326 yards passing and 220 rushing and over 500 total. I couldn't find all the numbers for West Ashley, but I do know the Wildcats stud RB had 254 yards rushing and West Ashley had total yardage just over 500 as well. In the Fort Dorchester/West Ashley game finding info and numbers was very hard. I know that Dorman was better offensively against West Ashley than Fort Dorchester was, I was able to find that Fort had 129 yards passing and 170 yards rushing - although I think it's worth noting that this game was the Friday before the flooding and the game was played in a downpour, and after being up 29-0 at halftime Fort began to sub players and by the 4th quarter had mostly subs in on offense and defense and I'm sure that effected the game for both sides.
Against Boiling Springs Dorman had 205 yards passing and 200 yards rushing, I literally could find nothing on how Boiling Springs fared against Dorman statistically, if someone could fill me in on that it would help make sense of things. Fort Dorchester had a good offensive night against Boiling Springs, passing for 206 and rushing for 260 and having almost 500 yards of offense. Boiling Springs had 300 yards passing (ouch) and although I couldn't find rushing numbers would probably think they had in the 100-150 yards rushing (mostly from the mobile QB), so both offenses had 500ish yards of offense in the game.
Bottom line...Honestly even with the missing pieces I still come to the same conclusion about these two teams. On paper (important distinction) these teams are pretty evenly matched. Both offenses are pretty balanced and have shown to be very high powered, both defenses have shown some weaknesses as well but seem to be built to stop different things. The Fort defense was very effective against the run of West Ashley basically shutting down the Wildcat RB all night and pitching a shut out until the final seconds of the game - while Dorman had trouble containing the West Ashley RB most of the game. The Fort defense had trouble with the passing game of Boiling Springs, and even though I don't know the numbers Dorman's defense at least seemed able to keep the Boiling Springs offense in check only allowing 17 points.
One thing I would like to note about the Fort defense - going through the schedule it's very evident that whether they face a passing or a rushing team they have ALOT of trouble with mobile QB's, where they seem to excel against pocket passers. They haven't faced a pocket passer as good as the one Dorman has, but in the games they have seen a pro-style QB they have done well. Against Wando's pro-style QB and high powered offense that averaged 34 points per game Fort won 63-0 and the QB was never able to get anything going, and against Ashley Ridge's pro-style QB and offense that averaged 35 points per game Fort held them to just 7 points and had their QB stifled all night long. But...mobile QB's like the QB from Boiling Springs, the backup from Summerville that played against Fort and option teams like Goose Creek and Cane Bay the mobility of the QB really gave fits to the Fort defense. Again, I acknowledge Fort hasn't played a pocket passer as good as Dorman's, but I think the Fort defense has played far better against pro-style QB's than mobile QB's.
I don't make predictions, but I expect a high-scoring and relatively close game. As usual the team with the fewest mistakes will probably come out on top and I think big-game experience could be a huge factor.
Fort Dorchester - 29
West Ashley - 6
Fort Dorchester - 56
Boiling Springs - 34
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Dorman - 52
West Ashley - 27
Dorman - 24
Boiling Springs - 17
In the two games Fort averaged 42.5 points and allowed 20 points and had an average margin of victory of 22.5 - Dorman averaged 38ppg and allowed 22 and had an average margin of victory of 16. So just going by raw numbers i'd say these teams are pretty even with Fort just slightly better statistically against common opponents. Both teams better on offense than defense and both were able to win both games fairly comfortably.
Of course this doesn't really factor everything in. Unfortunately high school stats aren't as easy to get as college/pro stats (although Dorman does a very good job with logging stats!), but anyway I'm having to try to piece some pieces of the puzzle together based on newspaper articles and the few stats I was able to find.
Against West Ashley Dorman had 326 yards passing and 220 rushing and over 500 total. I couldn't find all the numbers for West Ashley, but I do know the Wildcats stud RB had 254 yards rushing and West Ashley had total yardage just over 500 as well. In the Fort Dorchester/West Ashley game finding info and numbers was very hard. I know that Dorman was better offensively against West Ashley than Fort Dorchester was, I was able to find that Fort had 129 yards passing and 170 yards rushing - although I think it's worth noting that this game was the Friday before the flooding and the game was played in a downpour, and after being up 29-0 at halftime Fort began to sub players and by the 4th quarter had mostly subs in on offense and defense and I'm sure that effected the game for both sides.
Against Boiling Springs Dorman had 205 yards passing and 200 yards rushing, I literally could find nothing on how Boiling Springs fared against Dorman statistically, if someone could fill me in on that it would help make sense of things. Fort Dorchester had a good offensive night against Boiling Springs, passing for 206 and rushing for 260 and having almost 500 yards of offense. Boiling Springs had 300 yards passing (ouch) and although I couldn't find rushing numbers would probably think they had in the 100-150 yards rushing (mostly from the mobile QB), so both offenses had 500ish yards of offense in the game.
Bottom line...Honestly even with the missing pieces I still come to the same conclusion about these two teams. On paper (important distinction) these teams are pretty evenly matched. Both offenses are pretty balanced and have shown to be very high powered, both defenses have shown some weaknesses as well but seem to be built to stop different things. The Fort defense was very effective against the run of West Ashley basically shutting down the Wildcat RB all night and pitching a shut out until the final seconds of the game - while Dorman had trouble containing the West Ashley RB most of the game. The Fort defense had trouble with the passing game of Boiling Springs, and even though I don't know the numbers Dorman's defense at least seemed able to keep the Boiling Springs offense in check only allowing 17 points.
One thing I would like to note about the Fort defense - going through the schedule it's very evident that whether they face a passing or a rushing team they have ALOT of trouble with mobile QB's, where they seem to excel against pocket passers. They haven't faced a pocket passer as good as the one Dorman has, but in the games they have seen a pro-style QB they have done well. Against Wando's pro-style QB and high powered offense that averaged 34 points per game Fort won 63-0 and the QB was never able to get anything going, and against Ashley Ridge's pro-style QB and offense that averaged 35 points per game Fort held them to just 7 points and had their QB stifled all night long. But...mobile QB's like the QB from Boiling Springs, the backup from Summerville that played against Fort and option teams like Goose Creek and Cane Bay the mobility of the QB really gave fits to the Fort defense. Again, I acknowledge Fort hasn't played a pocket passer as good as Dorman's, but I think the Fort defense has played far better against pro-style QB's than mobile QB's.
I don't make predictions, but I expect a high-scoring and relatively close game. As usual the team with the fewest mistakes will probably come out on top and I think big-game experience could be a huge factor.
