2020 Outlook for High School Football

[DeCav]

PLEASE DO, TAKE REBIE 74 WITH U

Ehh...i like ‘em both but they ARE Rebels.

[bringthewood]

@spectator -- herd immunity refute.

I'm not sure what you're basing your assumptions on, though I can see your quoted sources.

I'll quote a world leading research scientist that I know. "There won't be a vaccine for this. The only way we can get ahead of this is to build herd immunity."

I trust him WAY more than any boolean search you can type up.

That is all.

[notabyrnesfan]

lindsey graham said just two days ago that a vaccine won't be available until a year from now or maybe the first of the year at the earliest.

the cherokee county superintendent told people just yesterday they are talking about having students use social distancing in the classroom this coming school year when the gaffney high seniors were protesting the two graduation options they have been given. i dont see how you can play a contact sport while you are using social distancing measures. it looks like we will need a miracle to have high school football in 2020.

https://www.wspa.com/news/watch-gaffney ... ion-plans/

his comments on this coming school year last from around 24:05 to 24:20 in the second video in the above link.

Again, everything is based on what we know right his second. It literally changes daily. One thing we do know about the illness is it, basically, doesn't affect our youth. Not only do they not have major implications from it, but many of them don't even catch it. Take a look at the daycares around our state, they have remained open, however has anyone heard of a child catching this through their daycare? My guess is if it happened, it would be all over the news as the Governor has caught a lot of flack for keeping them open. A month from now when our numbers are basically nothing in South Carolina, it is going to be tough to justify to the general public about not opening schools or playing high school sports. Plus with the speed at which medicine has been produced, at this point it is highly UNLIKELY to think that we won't have a readily available treatment for the virus AND a vaccine by the fall. Just one month ago, we were told there wouldn't be a vaccine for 12-18 months, now Dr. Fauci says we are likely to have one with 300 million doses by the end of the year.
https://theweek.com/speedreads/911878/d ... by-january

Also, a month ago we were given numbers of close to 1 million that would die from the disease. Ridiculous quotes from Gov Cuomo saying New York would need 30,000 ventilators (I think last check they ended up needing 2500 total). All in all, the expectations have been WAY worse than they really were.

The point I am making is it is going to be extremely difficult to not have school or high school sports when we have all of this positive news about fighting the virus and we sit here in June with no new cases. The numbers are starting to show, they won't add up. On top of that, you have citizens in South Carolina who have finally started to realize they are ready to move on, THAT plays a major factor. At some point, the well being of a students' future (both in the classroom and off) starts to outweigh the threat of the virus.
If high school football is cancelled, you honestly ruin many low income students chances at furthering their education. Football, more than any other sport, gives low income students that chance. Sure, if you are good enough for major college football, that is known before your senior year. But for the Newberrys, Charleston Southerns, Benedicts of the world, many of those are grabbing those guys who FINALLY broke through as seniors. Those are the guys who need it to have ANY shot at college, because otherwise they can't afford it.

Do we understand that a school system and sports program deal with people of all ages! The virus is not just going to say it's June and time to disappear! It will be here for the fall and winter and guess what???? Also new strains of the flu ! We can't be selfish and put these young men at risk just to our delight ! Some parents will more than likely not put their child at risk! Many said their child was not coming back to school this year if Governor approved schools could re-open! Noway you can 100% say that a player or coach would not catch it! (Until vaccine is made it will be a BIGGGGG change in the public school settings!

I think everyone here understands the age differences of school systems. To your point about the virus saying its June and time to disappear, actually in fact, yes, that is what the models are predicting. The models have always shown a major decrease in the amount of cases in late April and continuing through May. In fact, South Carolina projects that we will not have any further deaths from this "wave" after June 1st. So, yes the models are projecting exactly that, for the virus to fade away during the summer, just like all viruses do. Tests have shown this virus to be no different from the 1,000,000 others in terms of its vulnerability when encountering UV rays and heat/humidity. The virus, which can remain on surfaces for up 72 hours in some cases, goes to to 1-2 minutes when hit with UV light and temps over 75 degrees.
In terms of what parents were saying about this year, that is understandable, we didn't know much about the virus, hence the reason it is a "novel" coronavirus. Novel means new/unknown. Now that we know so much more than we did just 8 weeks ago, we have been able to flatten the curve in South Carolina and our hospitals have only had to accomodate about 5% of the cases that were projected. Our projections have shown to be exponentially higher than what has actually happened.
On top of all of that, just in the past few days, it has come out that we are likely to have a widely available vaccine by the fall in addition to a drug that can actually fight and defeat the virus. With either of those items, that is a game changer. Assuming this drug continues to progress, COVID-19 will be no more dangerous than the common flu as we will actually have a drug that can defeat it.
The point I am making is it is WAY too early to start saying "putting people at risk" and such. You are correct, there is no way to say 100% a player or coach wouldn't catch it, but life is full of risks. If a parent or coach needs a 100% guarantee of being safe then I would advise them to not participate in sports. The risks of injury is extremely high, plus these teams travel all the time and could be involved in an auto accident. Unfortunately these are risks too.

[spectator]

@spectator -- herd immunity refute.

I'm not sure what you're basing your assumptions on, though I can see your quoted sources.

I'll quote a world leading research scientist that I know. "There won't be a vaccine for this. The only way we can get ahead of this is to build herd immunity."

I trust him WAY more than any boolean search you can type up.

That is all.

AGAIN, some of you think herd immunity means to run out and play in the traffic. It doesn't. It is a slow, step by step process. What are you questioning?

[SF Band dad]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Put simply, herd immunity occurs when a sufficient number of the population is immune to a disease to prevent its spread through the population.

Resources utilization, new infections, hospital admissions, intubations and deaths are in decline in 33 states and the US as whole. Covid-19 peaked in the US 13 days ago. That is an indication that for each person infected the virus is now finding less then one additional person to infect. We can continue having everyone hide at home which will stretch out the tail of the "curve", or we can let those under 65 without other health conditions get back out there and carry on with life. Their risk is extremely low, most will have minimal or no symptoms, and their resulting immunity effectively snuffs out the virus.

[spectator]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Put simply, herd immunity occurs when a sufficient number of the population is immune to a disease to prevent its spread through the population.

Resources utilization, new infections, hospital admissions, intubations and deaths are in decline in 33 states and the US as whole. Covid-19 peaked in the US 13 days ago. That is an indication that for each person infected the virus is now finding less then one additional person to infect. We can continue having everyone hide at home which will stretch out the tail of the "curve", or we can let those under 65 without other health conditions get back out there and carry on with life. Their risk is extremely low, most will have minimal or no symptoms, and their resulting immunity effectively snuffs out the virus.

We show no signs of peaking in S.C. Still going up,up,up.
https://www.thestate.com/news/coronavir ... 6mHLbkAEsw

[SF Band dad]

We show no signs of peaking in S.C. Still going up,up,up.
https://www.thestate.com/news/coronavir ... 6mHLbkAEsw

Here's a quote from the article you linked:

South Carolina’s coronavirus curve is beginning to appear to level, state epidemiologist Linda Bell said.

DHEC officials expect about 1,200 positive cases per week through mid-May. By May 16, the state will see 9,064 identified cases, according to agency projections.

"Deaths" is a lagging indicator. They hit a peak of 16 on April 9th, and we have been averaging 8 deaths per day since then.

Hospital admissions, ICU bed utilization, intubations are all down. The death rate will follow.

S.C. hospitals are at 59.2% capacity.

The headline of the article is misleading, the total number of cases grows to 6258 but down in the body of the article they mention that 78% (4881) have recovered. 4% (256) have died, which leaves 18% (1121) active cases. 269 are hospitalized, that is down from the peak of 306 that were hospitalized on 23 April.

Either way, we'll know for sure in 3 or 4 weeks.

[bringthewood]

@spectator

1- you can't cherry pick the statistics; you have to look at morbidity rates: who dies from what. CDC guidelines are allowing anyone who dies that MIGHT have had the Wuhan Flu to be counted to the total Wuhan Flu numbers. Look at reported deaths for influenzas this season, record lows. Most recent CDC flu season stats (2018) were around 80.000 deaths. Go back and research flu deaths from the mid-70's.... eye opening.
Overall death rates for the month of March/April will show overall lows. The key take away from this is simply, it will be at least a year before final statistics are released.

2- Herd immunity/playing in the street. I usually don't address straw man arguments, but 1) I quit playing in the street about the time I got out of knee britches, 2) building herd immunity isn't about taking unrelated risks; death rates figures from automobile accidents related to having seatbelts in cars, isn't going to be influenced by death rates on motorcycles of those that didn't wear helmets -- while in both cases people are dead, the contributing factor to death isn't related in those 2 samplings.

Grandma is an at risk to exposure.
Son and family is healthy as a horse.
Someone in Son's family gets exposed, and spreads it through Son's house. Son gets a 'bug' for a couple of days but is okay, Daughter-In-Law feels nothing (even though she is exposed), Grandson feels 'blah' for a couple of days but has no fever/symptoms, Granddaughter gets bed ridden for 4-5 days but her influenza test comes back negative and the doctor says she has a 'flu-like virus".

Fast forward a couple of weeks, now the family has built herd immunity and goes to visit Grandma for her birthday. Grandma doesn't get sick at all, because of.... herd immunity.

3- the daily numbers are not the numbers that matter; again you have to look at totals and relate them to morbidity rate. Confirmed cases, of the day daily death rates, etc... are simply the old adage for news, "if it bleeds, it leads". In order to understand the impact of the Wuhan Flu, you have to take the overall numbers... ALL of the overall numbers.

Was this thing scary, YES. You can't trust anything that comes out of China, and there was some really scary Shi'ite coming out of China in December. I 1st got wind of all this in the 1st week of December and blew it off for 2 weeks. After Christmas we were all wondering if this was another SARS event or maybe it was related to the protest events in Hong Kong. Regardless, most countries were on their heels when the reality hit the fan.

However, we now have the luxury of having 3+ months worth of data to make a BETTER decision related to our response.

[96fanatic]

Looks like the football season is up to the Governor. www.schsl.org/index.php/schslcovid-19/

[notabyrnesfan]

it says page not found.

Looks like the football season is up to the Governor. www.schsl.org/index.php/schslcovid-19/