Region 4A-6 Projection and Scenarios (updated 10/20/23)

[SF Band dad]

4A-6 Projection.jpg (27.03 KiB) Viewed 597 times

With wins against W Florence and Hartsville, Myrtle Beach should finish in 2nd place.

This week's game between Hartsville and W Florence is the game to watch. It is likely the winner of this game will finish in 3rd place, the loser will be in 4th, and Wilson will be in the running for an at-large berth.

However, there are SFBD's nightmare scenarios:

• If W Florence defeats Hartsville and S Florence, we'll probably have a 3-way tie for first that would not be resolved by head-to-head wins. I need to find out what the tie-breaking rules are for region 6.

• Even worse: If W Florence defeats Hartsville and S Florence, AND Myrtle Beach loses to either Wilson or N Myrtle Beach, W Florence is the region champion based on head-to-head wins.

[Mbfootballfan]

4A-6 Projection.jpg
With wins against W Florence and Hartsville, Myrtle Beach should finish in 2nd place.

This week's game between Hartsville and W Florence is the game to watch. It is likely the winner of this game will finish in 3rd place, the loser will be in 4th, and Wilson will be in the running for an at-large berth.

However, there are SFBD's nightmare scenarios:

• If W Florence defeats Hartsville and S Florence, we'll probably have a 3-way tie for first that would not be resolved by head-to-head wins. I need to find out what the tie-breaking rules are for region 6.

• Even worse: If W Florence defeats Hartsville and S Florence, AND Myrtle Beach loses to either Wilson or N Myrtle Beach, W Florence is the region champion based on head-to-head wins.

You have nothing to worry about nobody’s going to beat South Florence! The only threat for them will come from the upstate later in the playoffs. Northwestern perhaps! South Point? There’s always that chance of a slip up but I doubt that’ll happen. That is a State championship team. I can’t wait until December!!!

[Rebel-Fan-74]

You have nothing to worry about nobody’s going to beat South Florence! The only threat for them will come from the upstate later in the playoffs. Northwestern perhaps! South Point? There’s always that chance of a slip up but I doubt that’ll happen. That is a State championship team. I can’t wait until December!!!

James Island doesn't seem to be getting any notice from anyone and when I look at the record I wonder why? They have wins over Cane Bay and Stratford and some wins over some not so impressive teams. I would list South Florence as at least a 15 point favorite at home against James Island.

Irmo is a little more interesting. Common opponent of Hartsville, who lost to Irmo 35-21 at home and lost to SF, at SF 49-21. Irmo has scored 387 points while giving up only 53 points. A game between the two would be at SF, so I would say SF by 10 - 13 points.

So I have to agree, the challenges are possibly Irmo in the Lower State, and the Upper State would be South Pointe, and obviously, Northwestern; but possibly the biggest challenge would be South Florence (for more details see Byrnes -vs- Chapman).

[SF Band dad]

4A-6 Projection Week 10.jpg (26.71 KiB) Viewed 402 times

Week 9 went as expected. As I see it:
1 South Florence - Locked
2 Myrtle Beach - Locked
3 Hartsville - Needs to defeat Wilson to ensure 3rd place. Can also finish in 3rd with a loss, if SF defeats WF.
4 West Florence - Could move up to 3rd place if they defeat SF and Wilson defeats Hartsville
5 Wilson - Locked
6 N Myrtle Beach - Locked

Edit: The conclusions for 3rd-5th place are wrong, correction posted in the next reply.

[SF Band dad]

• S Florence is the region champion. Even if they lose to W Florence, they stay ahead of Myrtle Beach due to the head-to-head win.

• Myrtle Beach is the runner up. Even if they lose to N Myrtle Beach, they stay ahead of W Florence and Hartsville due to wins against both.

• NMB is in 6th place even if they upset MB.

Things are bit more interesting for Hartsville, W Florence and Wilson:

Scenario 1.jpg (30.59 KiB) Viewed 347 times

Scenario 2.jpg (29.94 KiB) Viewed 347 times

The 3-way tie for 3rd is not resolved head-to-head. The outcome depends on the region's tie-breaking rules.

Scenario 3.jpg (30.78 KiB) Viewed 347 times

The tie for 1st is resolved by SF's win over MB.
The tie for 3rd is resolved by Hartsville's win over WF

Scenario 4.jpg (30.78 KiB) Viewed 318 times

The tie for 1st is resolved by SF's win over MB.
The tie for 4th is resolved by Wilson's win over Hartsville.