2020 Outlook for High School Football

[spectator]

Today's news and it applies to football at every level, certainly doesn't look good.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/11/us/fauci ... index.html

THAT WAS YESTERDAY, here is today. I think based on what was said in the Senate hearings today the chance for any type of fall sports at any level is very, very slim.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/politics ... index.html

[spectator]

OK FOLKS, this model is the one the White House has used and so far it has been very accurate. Doesn't look good at all for high school football in our state.

A new model released by scientists at the University of Washington predicts more than 137,000 Americans will die from the coronavirus by early August. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said its updated death projection of 137,184 deaths comes as states reopen and social distancing requirements are eased. The new numbers come after the institute’s May 4 forecast of 134,475 deaths.
The findings show during the last few weeks, five states — Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota and South Dakota — have seen at least a 20% increase in mobility patterns. In addition, 13 states have experienced between a 15% to 20% increase: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Wyoming. While at least some of these patterns may be related to formal easing of social distancing policies, this upward trend in movement began in several places long before state-level mandates were relaxed. Unless and until we see accelerated testing, contact tracing, isolating people who test positive and widespread use of masks in public, there is a significant likelihood of new infections.

I've been watching that model for some time now, I linked to it when this topic was first posted. http://www.scpreptalk.com/viewtopic.php?p=37795#p37795

It has not been accurate. Here is a link to an article that discusses how inaccurate it has been.

Even the "historical" portions of the model are wrong. I've been watching the SC DHEC numbers from the last 10 days, SC has been averaging 8 deaths a day. These guys show the average over that period as being 15 per day.

Here is where you are erroneous, you are accepting the scdehc numbers as accurate and factual. Until we increase testing 5 fold in S.C and until we start testing people who die, which we don't, we have no idea how many cases or deaths that we have. The numbers are obviously higher than what is being reported.

Dr Fauci just verified that the reported numbers of cases and deaths is well below the real numbers.

[FootballFan4343]

OK FOLKS, this model is the one the White House has used and so far it has been very accurate. Doesn't look good at all for high school football in our state.

A new model released by scientists at the University of Washington predicts more than 137,000 Americans will die from the coronavirus by early August. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said its updated death projection of 137,184 deaths comes as states reopen and social distancing requirements are eased. The new numbers come after the institute’s May 4 forecast of 134,475 deaths.
The findings show during the last few weeks, five states — Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota and South Dakota — have seen at least a 20% increase in mobility patterns. In addition, 13 states have experienced between a 15% to 20% increase: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Wyoming. While at least some of these patterns may be related to formal easing of social distancing policies, this upward trend in movement began in several places long before state-level mandates were relaxed. Unless and until we see accelerated testing, contact tracing, isolating people who test positive and widespread use of masks in public, there is a significant likelihood of new infections.

I've been watching that model for some time now, I linked to it when this topic was first posted. http://www.scpreptalk.com/viewtopic.php?p=37795#p37795

It has not been accurate. Here is a link to an article that discusses how inaccurate it has been.

Even the "historical" portions of the model are wrong. I've been watching the SC DHEC numbers from the last 10 days, SC has been averaging 8 deaths a day. These guys show the average over that period as being 15 per day.

Here is where you are erroneous, you are accepting the scdehc numbers as accurate and factual. Until we increase testing 5 fold in S.C and until we start testing people who die, which we don't, we have no idea how many cases or deaths that we have. The numbers are obviously higher than what is being reported.

SCDHEC numbers are as close to 100% as you are going to get in our state. The numbers that the CDC reports are directly taken from SC-DHEC. Furthermore the death numbers are not "fudged". If someone dies and they are confirmed to have COVID-19 it is reported. The numbers that are higher than what is being reported is the amount of people, statewide, that have or have had COVID-19. It is pretty much become accepted knowledge that the number is at least 10 times the amount of confirmed cases. Short of testing every person statewide, we will never fully have that number. Some areas which have done test "samples" are estimating that there are upwards of 80 times the amount of people who have had COVID-19 than the amount that is "confirmed". So what we find out of this is if we accept the 10 times number that means roughly 80,000 South Carolinians have had COVID-19 and only 346 have died which puts it at a .4% mortality rate. If we use the tests that have we have 80 times more than the amount of confirmed cases, our mortality rate drops to .05% (which is half of the seasonal flu). The more testing we do, the more we are seeing that the mortality rate isn't near what we thought it was. That makes the virus less lethal and therefore the need for less restrictions. That is why you are seeing things lifted. It has also become increasingly clear that overwhelming those effected are much older. Everyday we learn more, which is why IF there is a second wave, we will take a different approach. We will quarantine those most at risk and ask others to social distance and take precautions moving forward (which is the approach we have taken for thousands of years when dealing with viral pandemics).

[SF Band dad]

Right on cue.... IHME issues an update to their trends and projections. Their "actual deaths" in SC are now back in-line with what SC DHEC has been reporting.

SC is now doing over 6000 tests per week, a three-fold increase over last week. The "positive" rate is down to 4%. Link to DHEC's stats.

The IHME projections have been lowered accordingly, they're now projecting we'll hit zero deaths per day on June 16, the last hospitalization on July 4. If these projections are even close to being true I can't imagine how they could justify delaying school or the resumption of athletics.

With the testing resources we now have, anyone developing a cough or fever in August or September can get a covid-19 test immediately. Clusters of infection can be quickly identified and isolated.

[DeCav]

Boy howdy The Trump Administration should think about hiring me. If SC sent one thousand letters to Washington demanding football this August then the administration could run on that as their whole platform. The Dems want to take away your right to play football!

In 2020 instead of

Build That Wall!

It could be

Play Foot Ball!

Then he makes a show of making federal mandate to let individual high schools decide. (Come on Riverside, take a year off and experiment with spending that money on education.

All Trump has to do is whether the blowback from any backlash seen as a result of a rise in deaths.

If I’m the prez i go on tv talking some nonsense about “super safe football” or something sensational sounding like that. And describe this germaphobic approach to playing football where the ball boys run out every play and spray disinfectant on the ball and wipe it down. Then they put bleach in Gatorade bottles and pass them around to the refs and players.

I guarantee it will get a response and the poll numbers will go up. Especially if you force the Dems to admit they’d shut down high school football in a dire emergency.

[SF Band dad]

Decav,
Be careful what you suggest.

Doing away with football would win votes in some circles. Go to an ATP meeting and you'll hear them bring up the wasteful spending on equipment and stadiums rather than books and supplies. The "male culture" of violence, the concussions and other injuries....

[DeCav]

Decav,
Be careful what you suggest.

Doing away with football would win votes in some circles. Go to an ATP meeting and you'll hear them bring up the wasteful spending on equipment and stadiums rather than books and supplies. The "male culture" of violence, the concussions and other injuries....

Sounds like liberals anyway. Football brings in money to support itself and other programs, keeps kids out of trouble, gives incentives for passing grades.

Just too many upsides.

People will get in lockstep. I’m sure at least as many didn’t actually want a wall as would not want football.

[WRHIRadio]

One thing that hasn't been brought up in regards to possibly not having a season is those seniors who NEED this year.
There are hundreds of rising seniors around the state who absolutely have to have this year for a chance to go to college. These are young men who have the grades to get in, but without a football scholarship cannot afford to go. These aren't the guys going to South Carolina or Clemson (those athletes likely were offered as juniors). The guys I am talking about are those that will go to Newberry, Limestone, Benedict, Presbyterian, etc. These are players who will not play in the NFL, instead they will use that free education to make a life for themselves. Without their senior season, for many, it means no college and severely hampers their potential future.
THAT is why we must have high school football, even if played in stadiums with limited or no fans. Football is the vehicle that gets hundreds of young men into college each year in this state, without it, college is not attainable.

[Football Maniac]

Other states are starting to issue plans to get back to summer activities. Georgia released a proposal yesterday and I saw where Mississippi is eyeing June 1st. I suspect the SCHSL is putting together a plan to release soon. Every precaution is going to be taken if and when the athletes and coaches are able to meet in large groups again.

Here is my question, how can you let a youth team practice and compete but not let the local schools (High and Middle) do the same?

[FootballFan4343]

Other states are starting to issue plans to get back to summer activities. Georgia released a proposal yesterday and I saw where Mississippi is eyeing June 1st. I suspect the SCHSL is putting together a plan to release soon. Every precaution is going to be taken if and when the athletes and coaches are able to meet in large groups again.

Here is my question, how can you let a youth team practice and compete but not let the local schools (High and Middle) do the same?

The High School League already laid out the plan. They passed a ruling allowing summer workouts to begin effective June 1st, assuming the Governor opens up the school buildings by then. So, its in his corner now. Once he opens school buildings, workouts can begin.